search

BaRatin-tools / BaRatinAGE

BaRatin Advanced Graphical Environment
GNU General Public License v3.0
4 stars 0 forks source link

Apparent disagreement in posterior display #46

Closed JeromeLeCoz closed 3 months ago

JeromeLeCoz commented 1 year ago

Hi, something looks strange to me in the display of the k3 results in this example: Chiers_Chauvency.bar.zip

For instance, for the "S+2C_sans juillet 2021" rating curve, k3 = 1.4 +/-0.4 in the prior/post table and in the RC plot, but in the prior/post plot, the results look distributed like k3 = 1.8 +/-0.4...

For the "S+2C_juillet 2021" rating curve, the shift of the cenral value look even more obvious, as the k3 results follow the prior distribution (k3 = 1.4 +/-0.4) whereas the display is k3 = 1.2 +/-0.4...

Perhaps, this is due to discarded realizations (when k3<k2)? But then the statistics should not include the discarded values. I'm puzzled...

IvanHeriver commented 5 months ago

Hi,

is it not due to the fact that the maxpost (show in posterior plot and table) is not necessarily where you expect the average/mean to be? The maxpost can be quiet far from the average/mean in some cases I think.

If you think it is more than that, could you please check if you find the same issue with BaRatinAGE v3?

IvanHeriver commented 3 months ago

Hi @JeromeLeCoz , let me know if you also find the issue in v3. If you do not, I think you can close the issue.

JeromeLeCoz commented 3 months ago

There is actually no bug in v2 and v3, just my confusion of MaxPost and max of the marginal pdf of k3... which is fully clarified thanks to the excellent vizualisation offered by v3:

k3
JeromeLeCoz commented 3 months ago

You can close the issue, brillantly solved by v3!

IvanHeriver commented 3 months ago

great! :)