fix back calculation in R(t)

CDCgov / wastewater-informed-covid-forecasting

Wastewater-informed COVID-19 forecasting models submitted to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub

https://cdcgov.github.io/wastewater-informed-covid-forecasting/

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fix back calculation in R(t) #136

Closed kaitejohnson closed 3 months ago

kaitejohnson commented 3 months ago

Realized that the forward model assumes no infectiousness on day 0 of infection, and this is not the case if you just back-calculate R(t) by convolving incident infections with the generation interval specified, bc this generation interval is starting at day 1.

To back-calculate properly, we need to add 0 density on day 0 to the generation interval.

This explains why our R(t)s have looked jagged.

kaitejohnson commented 3 months ago

@dylanhmorris Is this good to merge?