Did the authors attempt to make a model for the 5 "outlier" beaches

Chicago / predicting-e-coli-concentrations

This repository is part of the working draft for an upcoming an academic paper describing the methods and results of the City of Chicago Clear Water project.

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Did the authors attempt to make a model for the 5 "outlier" beaches #51

Closed tomschenkjr closed 6 years ago

tomschenkjr commented 6 years ago

Line 245- Did the authors attempt to make a model for the 5 "outlier" beaches. Did these have similar characteristics that could be clustered together and a unique model made for them?

tomschenkjr commented 6 years ago

For this, let's push back on this comment. There are a few reasons why we don't want to pursue this line of research in this paper:

These beaches are distinct and difficult to predict. Need to identify literature which has also explored this and drawn supporting conclusions for these particular beaches in Chicago.
Other literature has supported that these features change the FIB characteristics. We should re-iterate this, especially since this paper is emphasizing inter-beach correlations.
We should find any supporting literature of the city messing with breakwaters to align them to FIB characteristics of other beaches. This supports the notion that a predictive model isn't worth pursuing for these beaches.

nicklucius commented 6 years ago

Here is the original source, from Whitman and Nevers, which led to the breakwater analysis and subsequent removal of certain beaches from the model: Escherichia coli Sampling Reliability at a Frequently Closed Chicago Beach: Monitoring and Management Implications, which cites Foreshore Sand as a Source of Escherichia coli in Nearshore Water of a Lake Michigan Beach by the same authors.

Both papers are case studies of 63rd Avenue Beach in Chicago, and discuss the mechanisms which presumably result in higher E. coli levels due to the breakwater.

Regarding the city messing with breakwaters, I've pinged the Park District to check in on that.

nicklucius commented 6 years ago

The Park District provided an interesting report about a project where it installed a protective barrier in the water at Calumet Beach in 2012 in an attempt to create a safe swimming zone. After data collection and analysis over the summer, they concluded that off-shore sources of microbial contamination were reduced but on-shore, runoff sources were trapped. As a result, no significant difference was found inside the swimming area vs. outside. The barrier was removed at the end of the 2012 season.

Final Technical Report GL00E00831.pdf

nicklucius commented 6 years ago

I found some more discussion and a citation in an old issue: https://github.com/Chicago/predicting-e-coli-concentrations/issues/1#issuecomment-331267212

tomschenkjr commented 6 years ago

@nicklucius - let's include a brief explanation for this in the submission letter to the editor. Use these references to create a paragraph on this topic.

nicklucius commented 6 years ago

@tomschenkjr - I added a paragraph to the letter. Please review.

tomschenkjr commented 6 years ago

Looks good