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ICRC-Models / HHCoM

Compartmental model of HIV and HPV heterosexual transmission, development of AIDS and cervical cancer, and interventions
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Less sensitive to vaccine waning than other models in WHO comparison #112

Open carajbro opened 3 years ago

carajbro commented 3 years ago

In terms of relative impact compared to lifelong vaccine immunity, our 5-year vaccine duration looks like 20-year vaccine duration in the IC/Harvard and Sacema models. We think that two phenomena may contribute to the difference in model results with waning:

  1. a difference in the proportion of incident 9v-type HPV cases occurring in the middle ages (~20-44) and affected by a waning versus lifelong vaccine
  2. in our compartmental model, vaccine coverage "leaks" into older ages and is less potent in the middle ages in the mid-term. This effect dampens some of the waning vaccine effect seen in the Sacema model

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