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SOLV-Code / Open-Source-Env-Cov-PacSalmon

Open-source, Human-centered Data Management for Environmental Covariates in Pacific Salmon Models
GNU General Public License v3.0
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Milestones in evolution of FC methods #25

Open SOLV-Code opened 7 months ago

SOLV-Code commented 7 months ago

Other than the 2010 and 2016 milestones listed in the readme, any years with substantial changes to the methods that should be highlighted?

Schgrant commented 6 months ago

This was an important paper where retrospective and jacknife approaches were documented and more rigorous approach to evaluating models. MacDonald, B.L., and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011: v + 64 pp. Available from http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ResDocs-DocRech/2012/2012_145-eng.html.

We started the supplement process in 2014, right when 'the blob' marine heatwave developed in the NE Pacific. So timing was aligned with how observations of ocean conditions were exceptional. It is increasingly challenging to create quantitative forecasts, when observations exceed historical record. As the global climate and oceans warm, using historical data to forecast the future may change relationships etc. The supplement was added to provide an indication on where in the quantitative forecast probability distribution the returns might fall based on expert input prior to the return season. This ensures science expertise is integrated ahead of the season in an objective way. DFO. 2014. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River sockeye salmon in 2014. Can. Sci. Adv. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/041: 57 pp. Available from http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/ScR-RS/2014/2014_041-eng.html.

The supplement was a critical process that integrated salmon experts and data across life-stages. This process evolved and improved as we learned the language and nuances of each program from lake limnology, stock assessment, marine ocean ecology, physiology, etc. We challenged each other on what we could say about what observations are telling us about survival, and what we determined to be less reliable. The final year of the supplement, table 1 provided a summary of observations and indications of survival Fraser Sockeye might have experienced at different life stages: MacDonald, B.L., Grant, S.C.H., Patterson, D.A., Robinson, K.A., Boldt, J.L., Benner, K., King, J., Pon, L., Selbie, D.., Neville, C.M., and Tadey., J.A. 2019. State of Salmon: informing the survival of Fraser sockeye returning in 2019 through life-cycle observations. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3336: vi + 60 pp. Available from http://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/Library/40819103.pdf.

SOLV-Code commented 6 months ago

Have incorporated these points into the summary text for this data set. Thank you.

Will keep this issue open for a while to see if any other points get raised...