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business-science / modeltime

Modeltime unlocks time series forecast models and machine learning in one framework
https://business-science.github.io/modeltime/
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prediction interval vs confidence interval terminology #102

Open brshallo opened 3 years ago

brshallo commented 3 years ago

"confidence interval" as used in {modeltime} refers to "prediction interval" in the sense that Hyndman means in The difference between prediction intervals and confidence intervals, correct?

Reference for modeltime_forecast seems to make this clear:

An 80% confidence interval estimates a normal (Gaussian distribution) that assumes that 80% of the future data will fall within the upper and lower confidence limits.

Am wondering if it may be helpful to sneak in a few mentions to "prediction intervals" in documentation (for those of us on the look-out for that type of terminology...)

AlbertoAlmuinha commented 3 years ago

Hi @brshallo ,

That is correct. We always return prediction intervals but not confidence intervals. Maybe we should change the documentation to refer to these concepts and make it easier for everyone to be clear about what we are working with. Let's see what @mdancho84 thinks about this.

Regards,

spsanderson commented 3 years ago

I would second this

mabuimo commented 9 months ago

I agree that prediction intervals and not confidence intervals is the term that should be used.