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facebookexperimental / Robyn

Robyn is an experimental, AI/ML-powered and open sourced Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) package from Meta Marketing Science. Our mission is to democratise modeling knowledge, inspire the industry through innovation, reduce human bias in the modeling process & build a strong open source marketing science community.
https://facebookexperimental.github.io/Robyn/
MIT License
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Budget Allocator ROAS does not match one-pager ROAS with weibull PDF adstock #866

Closed iamlostcoast closed 7 months ago

iamlostcoast commented 7 months ago

Hello, in my one pager, I am seeing substantially higher ROI numbers than the budget allocator suggests, across all channels. I'm setting the budget allocator window to the entire model window. For the Initial budget optimization result, I would expect ROI to match the ROIs from the one pager for each channel, but that's not the case. I was previously experimenting with geometric adstock curves, and when I used those, the ROIs did match, so it seems to me there may be an issue with the way weibull adstocking is implemented in conjunction with the budget allocator.

Environment & Robyn version

iamlostcoast commented 7 months ago

I believe this may be related to this issue: https://github.com/facebookexperimental/Robyn/issues/809

iamlostcoast commented 7 months ago

I'm going to close this given that this is related to an issue discussed in depth here. I do think it would be great if it were a bit more clear somewhere that essentially the simulator is biased towards channels where immediate spend > carryover, at least that's how I'm interpreting this!