maxbiostat / R0_uncertainty

Some remarks on prior modelling for the basic reproductive number in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model
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Priors for R0 -- catalogue #18

Open maxbiostat opened 6 years ago

maxbiostat commented 6 years ago

Volz & Silveroni, (2018): R_0 = beta/gamma, prior: log-normal(0, sd = 1).

Lam & Suchard (2018): R_0 = N*beta/gamma, priors: gamma and beta have a log-normal(0, 100) prior. N = 261.

McKinley et al (2019) Exp(1), i.e. Gamma(1, 1) on all rates.

Grinsztajn et al. (2020) use half normal priors on beta and gamma. In particular, mean_beta = 2, sd_beta = 1 and mean_gamma=0.4 and sd_gamma=0.5.

Rupp et al. (2021) use uniform priors on the (log) rates (!!!!). Here's a quote:

We do a full Bayesian analysis for parameter pairs (log α, log β) with a uniform prior. Following Ho, Crawford, et al. (2018) we sample from the joint posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) scheme (Duane et al. 1987; Neal 2011).