nekobean / mahjong-cpp

Miscellaneous programs about Japanese Mahjong
GNU General Public License v3.0
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シミュレーション結果に関する質問 - 問い合わせ日2022-01-03 #16

Closed nekobean closed 1 week ago

nekobean commented 1 year ago

問い合わせ内容

It’s very weird that discarding 8p (1740点) is given much higher expected value than 9p (1383点) in this problem:

## 場況
東一局0本場 東家 3巡目 ドラ: 南
33789m35689p2334s 1向聴 (一般手: 1向聴 七対子: 4向聴 国士無双: 11向聴)

## 計算結果
打: 八筒, 受入枚数: 15種49枚, 有効牌: 3m123456789p12345s (向聴戻し)
期待値: 1740点, 和了確率: 25.56%, 聴牌確率: 77.21%

打: 九筒, 受入枚数: 2種8枚, 有効牌: 47p
期待値: 1383点, 和了確率: 22.57%, 聴牌確率: 72.81%
nekobean commented 1 week ago

アルゴリズム変更により 8p < 9p になった

=== Config ===
     min turn: 1
     max turn: 18
   wall tiles: 121
        extra: 1
 shanten type: 7
 shanten down: true
     tegawari: true
      reddora: true
      uradora: true
=== Round ===
         hand: [ルール]
  赤ドラ有り: 有り
  喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌:

=== Player ===
         hand: 手牌: 33789m35689p2334s
副露牌:
自風: 1z

=== Info ===
      shanten: 1
         time: 7 ms
     searched: 1561 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
3m type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
7m type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
8m type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
9m type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
3p type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
5p type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
6p type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
8p type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
9p type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
2s type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
3s type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)
4s type: 2, sum: 8, tiles: 4p(4) 7p(4)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      3m      7m      8m      9m      3p      5p      6p      8p      9p      2s      3s      4s
   1  65.13%  46.88%  46.88%  58.29%  84.79%  75.97%  82.32%  83.97%  84.86%  65.55%  82.11%  65.55%
   2  61.95%  43.65%  43.65%  54.87%  82.72%  73.31%  80.21%  81.85%  82.81%  62.25%  79.94%  62.25%
   3  58.53%  40.32%  40.32%  51.27%  80.41%  70.39%  77.86%  79.50%  80.53%  58.70%  77.54%  58.70%
   4  54.86%  36.90%  36.90%  47.48%  77.84%  67.20%  75.26%  76.86%  77.99%  54.89%  74.87%  54.89%
   5  50.93%  33.40%  33.40%  43.52%  74.97%  63.70%  72.36%  73.88%  75.17%  50.83%  71.91%  50.83%
   6  46.76%  29.85%  29.85%  39.40%  71.75%  59.91%  69.14%  70.49%  72.03%  46.52%  68.62%  46.52%
   7  42.34%  26.27%  26.27%  35.15%  68.13%  55.81%  65.57%  66.66%  68.51%  41.98%  64.98%  41.98%
   8  37.69%  22.69%  22.69%  30.80%  64.09%  51.43%  61.62%  62.32%  64.56%  37.24%  60.95%  37.24%
   9  32.86%  19.16%  19.16%  26.40%  59.58%  46.62%  57.26%  57.42%  60.14%  32.33%  56.52%  32.33%
  10  27.90%  15.72%  15.72%  22.01%  54.57%  41.39%  52.44%  51.86%  55.21%  27.31%  51.65%  27.31%
  11  22.87%  12.42%  12.42%  17.69%  49.04%  35.73%  47.15%  45.60%  49.74%  22.27%  46.33%  22.27%
  12  17.87%   9.33%   9.33%  13.54%  42.97%  29.63%  41.36%  38.61%  43.69%  17.30%  40.56%  17.30%
  13  13.05%   6.53%   6.53%   9.66%  36.35%  23.16%  35.09%  30.95%  37.06%  12.55%  34.34%  12.55%
  14   8.59%   4.10%   4.10%   6.20%  29.25%  16.47%  28.35%  22.65%  29.86%   8.19%  27.73%   8.19%
  15   4.71%   2.14%   2.14%   3.31%  21.76%   9.92%  21.23%  14.01%  22.21%   4.45%  20.80%   4.45%
  16   1.72%   0.74%   0.74%   1.17%  14.10%   4.03%  13.89%   5.86%  14.32%   1.61%  13.69%   1.61%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   6.61%   0.00%   6.61%   0.00%   6.61%   0.00%   6.61%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Win Probability ===
turn      3m      7m      8m      9m      3p      5p      6p      8p      9p      2s      3s      4s
   1  17.56%  11.19%  11.19%  16.95%  33.30%  23.94%  27.03%  33.26%  34.25%  19.48%  31.68%  19.48%
   2  15.52%   9.67%   9.67%  14.84%  30.42%  21.43%  24.49%  30.22%  31.29%  17.20%  28.93%  17.20%
   3  13.54%   8.24%   8.24%  12.83%  27.53%  18.97%  22.00%  27.17%  28.31%  14.99%  26.17%  14.99%
   4  11.64%   6.90%   6.90%  10.92%  24.64%  16.57%  19.56%  24.15%  25.34%  12.87%  23.43%  12.87%
   5   9.84%   5.68%   5.68%   9.13%  21.79%  14.27%  17.19%  21.16%  22.38%  10.85%  20.73%  10.85%
   6   8.15%   4.57%   4.57%   7.47%  19.00%  12.07%  14.88%  18.23%  19.46%   8.97%  18.08%   8.97%
   7   6.58%   3.59%   3.59%   5.96%  16.30%  10.01%  12.66%  15.39%  16.61%   7.23%  15.51%   7.23%
   8   5.16%   2.73%   2.73%   4.62%  13.69%   8.09%  10.55%  12.66%  13.87%   5.65%  13.03%   5.65%
   9   3.90%   1.99%   1.99%   3.44%  11.22%   6.33%   8.57%  10.08%  11.27%   4.26%  10.68%   4.26%
  10   2.81%   1.39%   1.39%   2.45%   8.90%   4.73%   6.74%   7.70%   8.85%   3.06%   8.48%   3.06%
  11   1.90%   0.91%   0.91%   1.63%   6.79%   3.34%   5.09%   5.56%   6.64%   2.06%   6.47%   2.06%
  12   1.18%   0.54%   0.54%   0.99%   4.89%   2.17%   3.64%   3.70%   4.69%   1.27%   4.67%   1.27%
  13   0.64%   0.28%   0.28%   0.53%   3.27%   1.24%   2.41%   2.18%   3.03%   0.68%   3.13%   0.68%
  14   0.28%   0.12%   0.12%   0.22%   1.94%   0.57%   1.42%   1.04%   1.72%   0.29%   1.87%   0.29%
  15   0.07%   0.03%   0.03%   0.06%   0.95%   0.17%   0.69%   0.31%   0.78%   0.08%   0.93%   0.08%
  16   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.30%   0.00%   0.22%   0.00%   0.22%   0.00%   0.30%   0.00%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Expected Score ===
turn       3m       7m       8m       9m       3p       5p       6p       8p       9p       2s       3s       4s
   1   612.41   438.66   438.66   797.85  1563.70  1063.28  1190.00  1568.90  1582.96   794.97  1274.57   736.63
   2   538.81   375.95   375.95   696.15  1417.38   947.64  1064.52  1419.46  1434.41   699.02  1155.10   647.12
   3   468.05   317.63   317.63   599.42  1271.72   834.70   942.44  1269.89  1285.87   606.68  1037.58   561.09
   4   400.64   264.00   264.00   508.34  1127.90   725.40   823.85  1121.29  1138.48   518.67   922.77   479.21
   5   337.11   215.32   215.32   423.59   987.00   620.51   709.39   974.98   993.60   435.72   811.06   402.14
   6   278.00   171.82   171.82   345.78   849.98   520.79   600.33   832.60   852.20   358.60   702.94   330.61
   7   223.75   133.59   133.59   275.32   718.30   427.27   497.96   695.90   716.02   287.97   599.14   265.18
   8   174.77   100.63   100.63   212.64   593.54   340.99   403.68   566.55   587.07   224.38   500.43   206.38
   9   131.51    72.89    72.89   158.13   477.44   263.02   318.89   446.45   467.67   168.41   407.75   154.71
  10    94.32    50.24    50.24   112.04   371.81   194.41   244.75   337.38   360.17   120.48   322.10   110.55
  11    63.48    32.42    32.42    74.44   277.96   136.04   181.36   241.12   265.32    80.85   244.43    74.09
  12    39.07    19.06    19.06    45.19   197.19    88.01   127.12   159.40   183.97    49.61   175.59    45.40
  13    21.04     9.77     9.77    23.99   129.13    50.24    82.14    93.39   116.20    26.63   116.80    24.33
  14     9.07     3.98     3.98    10.17    74.90    23.14    46.98    44.31    63.43    11.43    69.21    10.43
  15     2.44     1.01     1.01     2.69    35.35     6.74    21.87    13.29    26.90     3.07    33.71     2.79
  16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.74     0.00     6.56     0.00     6.56     0.00    10.74     0.00
  17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00