nekobean / mahjong-cpp

Miscellaneous programs about Japanese Mahjong
MIT License
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シミュレーション結果に関する質問 - 問い合わせ日2021-12-30 #18

Closed nekobean closed 1 week ago

nekobean commented 1 year ago

問い合わせ内容

いつもシミュレータにはお世話になっております。
シミュレータの結果について気になる点がありました。
考慮項目の手変わりをありにする場合となしにする場合で、
ありにした方が和了率や期待値が下がる場合がありました。
(12577m222468p445sの打5mなど)
本来であれば選択肢が増える分期待値は上がるものと
思われますので、ご調査いただけないでしょうか。
nekobean commented 1 week ago

アルゴリズム変更により、手変わり、向聴戻しありの場合のほうが和了率や期待値が高くなった

手変わり、向聴戻しなし

== Config ===
     min turn: 1
     max turn: 18
   wall tiles: 121
        extra: 0
 shanten type: 7
 shanten down: true
     tegawari: true
      reddora: true
      uradora: true
=== Round ===
         hand: [ルール]
  赤ドラ有り: 有り
  喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌:

=== Player ===
         hand: 手牌: 12577m222468p445s
副露牌:
自風: 1z

=== Info ===
      shanten: 2
         time: 1 ms
     searched: 245 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
5m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
7m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
8p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      5m      7m      4p      8p      4s      5s
   1  73.10%  56.84%  65.14%  65.14%  67.72%  66.36%
   2  70.05%  53.39%  61.96%  61.96%  64.42%  63.01%
   3  66.70%  49.76%  58.54%  58.54%  60.84%  59.40%
   4  63.02%  45.96%  54.86%  54.86%  56.99%  55.53%
   5  59.01%  42.00%  50.93%  50.93%  52.87%  51.40%
   6  54.66%  37.90%  46.75%  46.75%  48.48%  47.02%
   7  49.97%  33.70%  42.33%  42.33%  43.83%  42.41%
   8  44.93%  29.42%  37.69%  37.69%  38.96%  37.59%
   9  39.59%  25.12%  32.87%  32.87%  33.90%  32.62%
  10  33.99%  20.85%  27.92%  27.92%  28.71%  27.54%
  11  28.20%  16.69%  22.90%  22.90%  23.48%  22.45%
  12  22.32%  12.72%  17.92%  17.92%  18.30%  17.44%
  13  16.53%   9.04%  13.11%  13.11%  13.33%  12.66%
  14  11.04%   5.78%   8.64%   8.64%   8.75%   8.27%
  15   6.16%   3.08%   4.76%   4.76%   4.79%   4.51%
  16   2.29%   1.09%   1.75%   1.75%   1.75%   1.64%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Win Probability ===
turn      5m      7m      4p      8p      4s      5s
   1  18.44%  11.51%  15.11%  15.11%  16.89%  14.51%
   2  16.41%  10.01%  13.35%  13.35%  14.93%  12.74%
   3  14.43%   8.60%  11.65%  11.65%  13.04%  11.04%
   4  12.50%   7.27%  10.01%  10.01%  11.21%   9.43%
   5  10.65%   6.03%   8.46%   8.46%   9.48%   7.91%
   6   8.90%   4.91%   7.01%   7.01%   7.86%   6.50%
   7   7.26%   3.89%   5.67%   5.67%   6.35%   5.21%
   8   5.75%   2.99%   4.45%   4.45%   4.99%   4.05%
   9   4.39%   2.21%   3.36%   3.36%   3.77%   3.03%
  10   3.19%   1.55%   2.43%   2.43%   2.72%   2.16%
  11   2.18%   1.03%   1.64%   1.64%   1.84%   1.45%
  12   1.36%   0.62%   1.02%   1.02%   1.13%   0.88%
  13   0.75%   0.33%   0.55%   0.55%   0.61%   0.47%
  14   0.33%   0.14%   0.24%   0.24%   0.27%   0.20%
  15   0.09%   0.04%   0.07%   0.07%   0.07%   0.05%
  16   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Expected Score ===
turn       5m       7m       4p       8p       4s       5s
   1   678.18   402.22   504.11   596.04   586.95   559.27
   2   603.22   349.78   444.40   526.83   518.78   491.35
   3   530.01   300.12   386.86   459.90   452.76   426.14
   4   459.09   253.57   331.88   395.70   389.36   364.10
   5   391.06   210.40   279.87   334.73   329.13   305.70
   6   326.54   170.91   231.27   277.51   272.60   251.41
   7   266.19   135.34   186.49   224.57   220.30   201.70
   8   210.71   103.91   145.95   176.41   172.78   156.98
   9   160.75    76.76   110.04   133.52   130.53   117.65
  10   116.96    53.98    79.08    96.36    93.98    84.01
  11    79.89    35.57    53.32    65.27    63.49    56.26
  12    49.96    21.42    32.90    40.46    39.24    34.45
  13    27.38    11.28    17.78    21.97    21.24    18.47
  14    12.02     4.74     7.69     9.56     9.20     7.92
  15     3.30     1.25     2.08     2.60     2.49     2.12
  16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00

手変わり、向聴戻しあり

=== Config ===
     min turn: 1
     max turn: 18
   wall tiles: 121
        extra: 1
 shanten type: 7
 shanten down: true
     tegawari: true
      reddora: true
      uradora: true
=== Round ===
         hand: [ルール]
  赤ドラ有り: 有り
  喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌:

=== Player ===
         hand: 手牌: 12577m222468p445s
副露牌:
自風: 1z

=== Info ===
      shanten: 2
         time: 213 ms
     searched: 20233 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
1m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
2m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
7m type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
2p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
6p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
8p type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)
5s type: 8, sum: 28, tiles: 3m(4) 6m(4) 7m(2) 5p(4) 7p(4) 3s(4) 4s(2) 6s(4)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      1m      2m      5m      7m      2p      4p      6p      8p      4s      5s
   1  78.08%  77.50%  76.37%  73.07%  58.50%  75.10%  71.73%  76.21%  76.95%  71.87%
   2  74.91%  74.30%  73.26%  69.60%  54.49%  71.95%  68.28%  73.05%  73.74%  68.50%
   3  71.35%  70.72%  69.83%  65.76%  50.23%  68.47%  64.45%  69.55%  70.17%  64.83%
   4  67.38%  66.73%  66.06%  61.55%  45.75%  64.63%  60.24%  65.72%  66.23%  60.88%
   5  62.97%  62.35%  61.96%  56.97%  41.07%  60.41%  55.64%  61.53%  61.89%  56.58%
   6  58.12%  57.55%  57.52%  52.03%  36.26%  55.81%  50.65%  56.95%  57.14%  51.96%
   7  52.86%  52.32%  52.69%  46.75%  31.38%  50.83%  45.29%  51.96%  52.00%  47.02%
   8  47.10%  46.60%  47.47%  41.19%  26.53%  45.47%  39.60%  46.58%  46.48%  41.80%
   9  40.85%  40.40%  41.87%  35.41%  21.80%  39.77%  33.65%  40.82%  40.61%  36.32%
  10  34.17%  33.78%  35.94%  29.50%  17.16%  33.78%  27.56%  34.74%  34.44%  30.66%
  11  27.18%  26.88%  29.77%  23.59%  12.75%  27.61%  21.43%  28.44%  28.10%  24.93%
  12  20.13%  19.91%  23.50%  17.82%   8.72%  21.41%  15.46%  22.08%  21.76%  19.25%
  13  13.39%  13.25%  17.31%  12.38%   5.25%  15.39%   9.94%  15.87%  15.61%  13.82%
  14   7.38%   7.31%  11.46%   7.55%   2.55%   9.85%   5.28%  10.13%   9.96%   8.88%
  15   2.65%   2.63%   6.30%   3.67%   0.78%   5.16%   1.83%   5.27%   5.20%   4.71%
  16   0.00%   0.00%   2.29%   1.09%   0.00%   1.75%   0.00%   1.75%   1.75%   1.64%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Win Probability ===
turn      1m      2m      5m      7m      2p      4p      6p      8p      4s      5s
   1  21.86%  21.35%  20.89%  17.11%  11.64%  19.51%  17.71%  20.41%  21.77%  17.70%
   2  19.24%  18.78%  18.46%  14.98%   9.93%  17.20%  15.48%  18.03%  19.23%  15.50%
   3  16.69%  16.28%  16.11%  12.94%   8.33%  14.97%  13.34%  15.71%  16.76%  13.40%
   4  14.23%  13.88%  13.85%  10.99%   6.84%  12.83%  11.29%  13.48%  14.41%  11.40%
   5  11.89%  11.59%  11.72%   9.16%   5.49%  10.79%   9.35%  11.36%  12.17%   9.53%
   6   9.69%   9.46%   9.72%   7.46%   4.27%   8.89%   7.56%   9.37%  10.05%   7.79%
   7   7.67%   7.49%   7.87%   5.91%   3.22%   7.15%   5.92%   7.54%   8.09%   6.20%
   8   5.86%   5.72%   6.18%   4.53%   2.32%   5.57%   4.45%   5.88%   6.30%   4.79%
   9   4.26%   4.16%   4.68%   3.32%   1.59%   4.17%   3.19%   4.40%   4.72%   3.56%
  10   2.90%   2.83%   3.39%   2.30%   1.02%   2.96%   2.13%   3.13%   3.36%   2.51%
  11   1.80%   1.76%   2.30%   1.48%   0.60%   1.97%   1.30%   2.07%   2.23%   1.65%
  12   0.98%   0.96%   1.42%   0.86%   0.30%   1.19%   0.69%   1.24%   1.34%   0.99%
  13   0.43%   0.42%   0.77%   0.43%   0.12%   0.62%   0.29%   0.65%   0.70%   0.52%
  14   0.12%   0.11%   0.33%   0.16%   0.03%   0.26%   0.08%   0.26%   0.29%   0.21%
  15   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   0.04%   0.00%   0.07%   0.00%   0.07%   0.07%   0.05%
  16   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
=== Expected Score ===
turn       1m       2m       5m       7m       2p       4p       6p       8p       4s       5s
   1  1743.59  1738.88  1498.24  1074.23   684.00  1326.05   926.60  1491.72  1471.00  1286.55
   2  1531.63  1525.84  1309.52   929.43   578.66  1154.41   798.75  1299.79  1287.01  1115.02
   3  1326.77  1319.78  1128.43   791.94   481.62   989.99   678.42  1116.05  1109.29   951.66
   4  1130.98  1122.10   956.45   662.72   393.60   834.06   565.88   941.95   939.29   797.70
   5   944.99   934.69   794.40   542.89   314.27   687.90   461.93   778.46   778.77   654.51
   6   770.33   759.40   643.83   433.44   243.96   552.98   367.41   627.22   629.58   523.59
   7   609.01   598.33   506.36   335.39   183.13   430.87   283.12   490.00   493.44   406.15
   8   463.20   453.74   383.69   249.76   131.61   323.06   209.79   368.56   372.03   303.37
   9   335.01   327.76   277.45   177.38    89.46   230.85   147.65   264.38   267.24   216.54
  10   226.49   221.48   189.18   118.43    56.51   155.23    97.02   178.71   180.78   146.18
  11   139.43   136.32   119.82    72.74    32.26    96.62    58.06   112.02   113.14    91.62
  12    74.86    73.23    68.86    39.86    15.89    54.62    30.27    63.75    63.89    52.21
  13    32.12    31.44    34.77    18.62     6.13    26.52    12.56    31.48    31.19    25.54
  14     8.58     8.41    13.80     6.57     1.43     9.84     3.23    11.93    11.64     9.63
  15     0.00     0.00     3.30     1.25     0.00     2.08     0.00     2.60     2.49     2.12
  16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00