CO2 emission costs and captured biogenic CO2 costs do not change for industry when CCS is applied

[mabijkerk]

Background In a blank nl2019 scenario, when all energetic demand in the fertilizer sector is set to 100% network gas burner, the CO2 emission costs in the costs export for industry_chemicals_fertilizers_burner_network_gas are as follows:

24056559.54

Then, if in that scenario 100% CCS for combustion in the fertilizer is applied, 85% of all emissions are captured and the demand for the industry_chemicals_fertilizers_captured_combustion_co2 node is 1.38 MT. This means that it could be expected that CO2 emission costs of the industry_chemicals_fertilizers_burner_network_gas would decrease. However they stay the same at:

24056559.54

Issue In the energy sector, when CCS is applied, effectively a different node is activated. For example, energy_power_combined_cycle_coal switches to energy_power_combined_cycle_ccs_coal. One of the key differences between both nodes is the free_co2_factor, which is 0.0 and 0.85 respectively. In the cost methods on ETEngine this then leads to reduced co2_emissions_costs_per_typical_input:

      def co2_emissions_costs_per_typical_input
        fetch(:co2_emissions_costs_per_typical_input) do
          weighted_carrier_co2_per_mj * area.co2_price *
            (1 - area.co2_percentage_free) *
            (takes_part_in_ets || 1.0) * ((1 - free_co2_factor))
        end
      end

However, in the industry sector, no different node is activated and there is no change in the free_co2_factor. There only is an increased use of electricity on the industry_chemicals_fertilizers_captured_combustion_co2_electricity and costs are calculated in the molecule graph on the industry_chemicals_fertilizers_captured_combustion_co2 node. The same issue also applies to the recently added captured biogenic CO2 costs.

Solution There are three issue sfor which a solution needs to be found:

• [ ] Make sure that use of CCS leads to a decrease in CO2 emission costs in the industry sector (perhaps by setting the free_co2_factor with the CCS input)
• [ ] Make sure that use of CCS for biogenic flows leads to an decrease in captured biogenic CO2 costs (negative costs equal revenue) in the industry sector (perhaps by setting the free_co2_factor with the CCS input)
• [ ] The costs in the molecule graph are currently assigned to initial_investment, while it might be better to allocate it to ccs_investment

[kndehaan]

I think that the addition of changing the free_co2_factor with the CCS input of industry nodes (as you suggest) will fix the first and second issue. As an example in share_of_industry_chemicals_fertilizers_captured_combustion_co2, the query should contain something like the following:

UPDATE(V(industry_chemicals_fertilizers_burner_network_gas), free_co2_factor, 0.85 * DIVIDE(USER_INPUT(),100.0))

Here, a CO2 capture rate (or free_co2_factor) of 85% is assumed (and hard-coded) and multiplied with the share of installed capacity that will be equipped with carbon capture. By updating the free_co2_factor of the node, only the CO2 emissions costs will be calculated for the share that is not captured (1-free_co2_factor) and the captured biogenic CO2 costs (negative value) will be calculated for the biogenic share that is captured (free_co2_factor).

CO2 emission costs:

  def co2_emissions_costs_per_typical_input
        fetch(:co2_emissions_costs_per_typical_input) do
          weighted_carrier_co2_per_mj * area.co2_price *
            (1 - area.co2_percentage_free) *
            (takes_part_in_ets || 1.0) * ((1 - free_co2_factor))
        end
      end

Captured biogenic CO2 costs:

def captured_biogenic_co2_costs_per_typical_input
        fetch(:captured_biogenic_co2_costs_per_typical_input) do
          weighted_carrier_potential_co2_per_mj *
            - area.captured_biogenic_co2_price *
            free_co2_factor
        end
      end

[mabijkerk]

Thanks for diving into this @kndehaan! Instead of using a hardcoded value though, I'd rather use a dynamic attribute. Preferably the dataset attribute that sets the share in the molecule graph:

~ parent_share = SHARE("molecules/industry_chemicals_fertilizers_combustion_co2_parent_share", industry_chemicals_fertilizers_emitted_co2)

Could you implement your suggested fix and verify whether it produces the expected results?

[kndehaan]

I came across two CCS share queries that are hidden in the front-end:

• share_of_industry_chemicals_other_captured_co2: hidden due to dependent_on: _always_hidden
• share_of_industry_chemicals_refineries_captured_co2: the slider of this query is hidden in the front-end , I think it has something to do with dependent_on: true?

Do these queries need to be updated as well or are they never used for some reason and therefore not relevant?

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