Closed wlandau closed 1 month ago
I will start by adding an optional l_tau
hyper parameter to control the lower bound of the uniform prior on tau
. Then different versions of the hierarchical model can be compared by setting different hyperparameters. Pooling should happen when l_tau
is 0 and s_tau
is close to 0, and borrowing should mostly disappear when l_tau
and s_tau
are very high. By using hbl_mcmc_hierarchical()
with these hyperparameters instead of hbl_mcmc_pool()
or hbl_mcmc_independent()
, we will hopefully achieve a more direct apples-to-apples comparison because the dimensionality of the 3 models will agree.
might not be necessary if marginal mean estimation has a better way of handling covariates (c.f. https://github.com/wlandau/historicalborrow/issues/7).
On some datasets, the hierarchical model marginal posteriors are sometimes not strictly between those of the independent and pooled models. I think there may be a refactor which makes all these models more directly comparable.