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ARKInvest / ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

An excerpt from our financial valuation model of Tesla
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Bull Case needs many Giga factories? #12

Open WolfDSCoder opened 5 years ago

WolfDSCoder commented 5 years ago

The Bull case indicates an Autonomous fleet of 7,200,000 cars in 2023. I worked out an annual production to get to this amount, using 3,000,000 cars sold in 2023. Other than Freemont, it looks like five Giga factories will be needed to achieve this fleet size. This seems aggressive considering when models will be introduced and factories can be brought up to full production, such as for Model 3, Model Y, Model '2', and Pickup. (Although, the China Giga3 is being built at remarkable speed).

Would a Bull case fleet of 5,000,000 be more appropriate?

Giga factories needed for Fleet

angelmarauder commented 5 years ago

The factories can make multiple times their current capacity. From personal experience, the Fremont NUMMI factory is underutilized for space due to parts storage. They have built a multistory automated parts facility next to the factory to free up space and allow for additional manufacturing lines. The Gigafactories are 4 times larger.

jtngangani commented 4 years ago

@angelmarauder Is there data on production capacity (cars per year) of gigafactory in addition to the batteries they can produce?