ARKInvest / ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

An excerpt from our financial valuation model of Tesla
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Confirming EV/EBIT, pre-tax margins, pre-tax dollars and market cap to pre-tax dollar valuation #17

Open cnjonesjr opened 5 years ago

cnjonesjr commented 5 years ago

Hello ARK Invest,

Thank you for putting up part of your model. I would like to confirm the calculations I made from it.

                                                                   BULL       BEAR

EV to EBIT 118 59 PRE-TAX MARGIN 7% 2% (Gross margin-SG&A-R&D) PRE-TAX DOLLARS $10,792 $2,014 (Revenue x Pre-tax margin) MARKET CAP TO PRE-TAX DOLLARS 125 57

Which then leads to these calculations:

PRE-TAX DOLLAR MULTIPLE 20 20 (my multiple assumption) VALUE $215,833 $40,280 (Pre-tax dollars x 20) VALUE PER SHARE $942 $198 (Value/# of shares)

If I am correct then assuming a multiple of 20x the Bull case gives a share price of $942 and the Bear case of $198 is close to the current $190.

Chuck Jones

P.S. I'm not sure the numbers line up for the BULL and BEAR case when you look at it. I apologize for any formatting that doesn't look right.