ARKInvest / ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

An excerpt from our financial valuation model of Tesla
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Feedback: Why wouldn't diluted share count be used to project future shares outstanding? #31

Open Wes643 opened 3 years ago

Wes643 commented 3 years ago

Under "shares outstanding," the model projects 964M shares outstanding in 2025. Currently Tesla has 990M shares outstanding, adding 30M since the end of Q4 2020. 1.119B diluted shares are currently outstanding. The enterprise value estimate implies that little -if any- capital will be allocated to Share buybacks. There appears to be a very large discrepancy, in both quantity and trajectory, between the modeled share count and actual share count, significantly altering the price target. Am I missing something here?