Your valuations hinge upon the 1.7m and the robotaxis. Both could happen if there is enough demand&no hard production problems. I think you should include the taxi service w humans in the bear case and use a lower production number.
If 5% add their car to a human driven fleet priced at 2.5$/mile an with 20% margin, then the growth in the bear case would be approximately the same as you have now except I assume 1 mil cars produced/year and 2.5 million cumulative by 2023.
And your bull case supposes most will add their car to an autonomous fleet. Not so sure myself.
Your valuations hinge upon the 1.7m and the robotaxis. Both could happen if there is enough demand&no hard production problems. I think you should include the taxi service w humans in the bear case and use a lower production number.
If 5% add their car to a human driven fleet priced at 2.5$/mile an with 20% margin, then the growth in the bear case would be approximately the same as you have now except I assume 1 mil cars produced/year and 2.5 million cumulative by 2023.
And your bull case supposes most will add their car to an autonomous fleet. Not so sure myself.
Tesla.Valuation.for.Github_5.23.19_new.xlsx