Open utterances-bot opened 3 years ago
Hey Alex! This is one of the best posts I've encountered about gradually implementing a Bayesian hierarchical model. I really had a lot of fun going through it. Kudos! A couple of questions I had while reading through it:
Great work again! Looking forward to keeping the discussion.
Hi again! Just realized that the issue of forecasting beyond month 60 not only affects the Gaussian walk but also the month effect component. Given that we have a Gaussian distribution for each of the 60 months, the moment we go beyond that time frame, we are left without information and therefore distributions to model. Hope this makes sense. Not sure if there's an approach that can propagate the month-related components of the model into the future.
Popularity hide and seek | PollsPosition — The Blog
Estimate latent presidential popularity across time with a Markov chain
https://alexandorra.github.io/pollsposition_blog/popularity/macron/hidden%20markov%20models/polls/2021/05/16/hmm-popularity.html