Ascalonic / PyCovid

A ML based model to predict the COVID-19 growth using historical data from existing countries
5 stars 1 forks source link

Can't reproduce results #1

Open kurianbenoy opened 4 years ago

kurianbenoy commented 4 years ago

Screenshot_2020-03-18 Coronna virus Kerala Kaggle

Please clarify if this is the exact code, or have I missed something

Ascalonic commented 4 years ago

Dense LSTM networks are usually tuned to perform predictions on batches of data much larger than this. We barely have a test batch. But time series prediction is something RNNs and LSTMs are pretty good at. In our data, it outperformed fbProphet very well. At the end of the day, what works, works. And this seemed to work better than https://www.corona.megstalks.com

One out of 4-5 runs yields results like this. There is comparatively high noise in the data and LSTM networks seem to amplify them in some test runs. To get the correct results, try running them until the mean squared error and loss are acceptable. For instance, I just ran it again in Colab and got:

Train Score: 34.21 RMSE, Loss: 3.8427e-05 and a perfectly curved prediction line.