Import notebook and lay out plan for Thursday morning session 2

Hi @dfm - this one's for me to do I think, so you can see what I'm planning - and so we can issue ourselves with more prep. From my notes, we're roughly aiming for:

Set up example, show analytic solution
Implement MH sampler, run
Visual model checks: fit looks bad
Extension to model, visual check. Fit looks better.
Quantified model check by PPP. Brief discussion, of sensitivity, and comparison to classical hypothesis test.
Quantified model check by CV. Brief discussion, of question being answered.
Quantified model comparison by Evidence - involves diversion to SMC. Brief discussion, of sensitivity in general and prior volume in particular.

AstroHackWeek / AstroHackWeek2015

Import notebook and lay out plan for Thursday morning session 2 #7