AugurProject / turbo

Simple, AMM-based Prediction Markets backed by Chainlink Oracles.
MIT License
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Removing the No Contest contracts #1558

Open akreider opened 2 years ago

akreider commented 2 years ago

For nfl games the No Contest contracts that don't include ties can theoretically be dumped from 0.02 down to slightly above 0.00. The maximum possible loss to liquidity providers is 100% of their liquidity.

You can test out IL (Impermanent Loss) scenarios with: https://baller.netlify.app/

Now in practice there is a slight chance that a game will be delayed greater than 24 hours or cancelled, and perhaps more importantly the amount of liquidity in the system is limited. So traders are currently dumping No Contest from 0.02 down to 0.0020 to 0.0040 before the game. This causes an approximate 1.62% to 2.78% IL. I expect this will increase as more users join the system, liquidity is increased, and as dumping No Contest becomes an increasingly relative profitable alternative to providing liquidity.

For the long term sustainability of liquidity providing, it is important to reduce this loss.

One solution is to remove the No Contest contracts and, in the event of a no contest or tie, award 0.50 to each of the two contracts.