CBIIT / nci-webtools-dceg-age-period-cohort

http://analysistools.nci.nih.gov/apc
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Data #16

Open zulaotgon opened 5 years ago

zulaotgon commented 5 years ago

Hi. Why data should be entered by an equal year-interval for age group (row) and year (column)? My data has 5 years age group and by 1 year calendar year. Can I multiply by 5 the findings? Thank you.

checkdp commented 5 years ago

@zulaotgon the Period and Age groups must be of equal intervals for these estimable parameters to be calculated correctly (based on the methods used to create this tool). There are methods to create different estimable parameters. From Holford TR (2006)

Age-period-cohort models have provided useful insights into the analysis of time trends for disease rates, in spite of the well known identifiability problem. Unique parameter estimates that avoid arbitrary constraints are provided by estimable functions of the parameter estimates. For data that are generated using equal interval widths for age and period, the identifiability issue may be expressed in terms of the age, period and cohort slopes. However, when the interval widths are not the same for age and period, additional identifiability problems arise. These may be represented in terms of macro-trends, which have the identical identifiability problem seen in the equal interval case, and micro-trends, which are the source of the additional problems. A framework for testing estimability is presented, and a variety of potentially interesting functions of the parameters considered. Unlike the equal interval case, drift is not estimable for unequal intervals, but local drift may be. In addition, the available functions for forecasting are much more restrictive in the latter case. This estimability problem induces cyclical patterns in the estimates of trend as is demonstrated using data on leukaemia in Connecticut males, but this can be avoided through the use of smoothing splines. These methods of are illustrated for three-year period and five-year age intervals using data on lung cancer mortality in Californian women.

checkdp commented 5 years ago

@zulaotgon To make your 1 year calendar data into 5 year groups, you will need to add the counts and populations over each 5 year span. I have attached an excel workbook to give you an example. Example - single year to five year periods.xlsx

zulaotgon commented 5 years ago

Dear David--thank you very much for your help!

Zula

On Tue, Feb 19, 2019 at 11:23 AM David P. Check notifications@github.com wrote:

@zulaotgon https://github.com/zulaotgon To make your 1 year calendar data into 5 year groups, you will need to add the counts and populations over each 5 year span. I have attached an excel workbook to give you an example. Example - single year to five year periods.xlsx https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/151a5edd70b9c3fa64ddd9f7eeb9518f3412f1a5?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2FCBIIT%2Fnci-webtools-dceg-age-period-cohort%2Ffiles%2F2880905%2FExample.-.single.year.to.five.year.periods.xlsx&userId=2741949&signature=7153427fd8ff03e8

— You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/9b26dc1fa219dd8488329e509c282c32082a8aa2?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2FCBIIT%2Fnci-webtools-dceg-age-period-cohort%2Fissues%2F16%23issuecomment-465203031&userId=2741949&signature=127f12a083cb6684, or mute the thread https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/96f2761898c46620c01c74d1e8055f2deb231d8f?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fnotifications%2Funsubscribe-auth%2FAfY2884h9RgDX38tqmQduy_JIY0JxDfwks5vPCUZgaJpZM4bDInb&userId=2741949&signature=818bf553565dd94a .

zulaotgon commented 5 years ago

Dear Dr. ---I have the following attached data, but I got an error message "Error in solve.default(t(X) %% WX, t(WX) %% z) : system is computationally singular: reciprocal condition number = 4.7927e-51"

By 5-year period, I have only 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. The only way is to increase the sample size? Thank you. Zula

On Tue, Feb 19, 2019 at 11:23 AM David P. Check notifications@github.com wrote:

@zulaotgon https://github.com/zulaotgon To make your 1 year calendar data into 5 year groups, you will need to add the counts and populations over each 5 year span. I have attached an excel workbook to give you an example. Example - single year to five year periods.xlsx https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/65b8844597b97c81ece4424d128968a217a5e10b?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2FCBIIT%2Fnci-webtools-dceg-age-period-cohort%2Ffiles%2F2880905%2FExample.-.single.year.to.five.year.periods.xlsx&userId=2741949&signature=31be425b1d2fd850

— You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/c0c9d62a0c8ffea9e0419cf2b3fb527a5e48391b?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2FCBIIT%2Fnci-webtools-dceg-age-period-cohort%2Fissues%2F16%23issuecomment-465203031&userId=2741949&signature=bdba65035f26f31b, or mute the thread https://mailtrack.io/trace/link/945a571e0c4ceca5feb8c81cf9d1688f5bb753ae?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgithub.com%2Fnotifications%2Funsubscribe-auth%2FAfY2884h9RgDX38tqmQduy_JIY0JxDfwks5vPCUZgaJpZM4bDInb&userId=2741949&signature=dc7116de5b050958 .

checkdp commented 5 years ago

@zulaotgon Unfortunately the minimum number of Periods or Age Groups for the model to run is three (3). Since you only have 2 periods, it is giving an error message.