CDCgov / cfa-viral-lineage-model

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MCMC seed not being respected? #61

Open afmagee42 opened 1 month ago

afmagee42 commented 1 month ago

In retrospective_forecasting/main.py we set the fix passed to numpyro. However, either I'm missing something obvious or we have a bug somewhere which is overriding or interacting with this.

This is the trace plot for a parameter in one run of the analysis pipeline image

And this is the same parameter in another run of the analysis pipeline image

The set of models run both times was different, but that shouldn't impact the MCMC results for the same model (prior x likelihood) on the same data with the same MCMC seed. (Unless I'm missing something.)