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CDCgov / multisignal-epi-inference

Python package for statistical inference and forecast of epi models using multiple signals
https://cdcgov.github.io/multisignal-epi-inference/
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Interface for counterfactual prediction #238

Open damonbayer opened 2 days ago

damonbayer commented 2 days ago

May be out of scope for this project (or just for now), but @SamuelBrand1 points us to epidemia's interface for counterfactuals, which I think is cool. This is somewhat straightforward to implement, as we can build off of the built-in numpyro predictive functionality, but we would need to think about the interface.

I like the epidemia interface for prediction/counterfactual: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/epidemia/reference/posterior_predict.epimodel.html . The tl; dr explanation is they fit an object (which contains posterior draws for the params) and then passing newdata can create forecasts (by being longer) and/or counterfactuals (by having different covariates like an earlier lockdown). Its demoed here, https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/epidemia/articles/europe-covid.html .

Originally posted by @SamuelBrand1 in https://github.com/CDCgov/multisignal-epi-inference/issues/169#issuecomment-2191161181