CDCgov / wastewater-informed-covid-forecasting

Wastewater-informed COVID-19 forecasting models submitted to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub
https://cdcgov.github.io/wastewater-informed-covid-forecasting/
Apache License 2.0
43 stars 7 forks source link

Literal zero negative binomial mean #71

Open kaitejohnson opened 3 months ago

kaitejohnson commented 3 months ago

Problem

We get error messages like:

Chain 3 Exception: neg_binomial_2_lpmf: Location parameter[54] is 0, but must be positive finite! (in '/tmp/RtmpoyVeM4/model-15964260d98c.stan', line 309, column 8 to column 51)

Context

From @dylanhmorris : One still sees this in the toy data vignette despite the switch to better hierarchy handling having resolved a bunch of other complaints, suggesting that this is something else. Also striking that it's always index [54] in the toy data vignette, which suggests maybe there's something off with indexing?

Shortening the inf_to_hosp vector by one moves the zero index by one, which makes me think this is an off-by-one-in-the-initialization situation