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CSSEGISandData / COVID-19

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
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About confirmed cases in France #2094

Closed CSSEGISandData closed 4 years ago

CSSEGISandData commented 4 years ago

Update 4/16: after communicating with solidarites-sante.gouv.fr, we decided to make these adjustments based on public available information. From April 4 to April 11, only "cas confirmés" are counted as confirmed cases in our dashboard. Starting from April 12, both "cas confirmés" and "cas possibles en ESMS" (probable cases from ESMS) are counted into confirmed cases in our dashboard.

Original: Translating press conferences and case reports invariably results in the loss of nuance and detail. In a daily briefing on April 3rd, the French health ministry director reported that there were 17,827 confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 in nursing homes. Data aggregation sites that rely on media reports to report case counts, such as ourselves, Worldometer, and BNO, followed the conclusion from this Reuters article that the nursing home cases were being reported separately from the confirmed case total and thus the two values should be summed to reach the true number of cases. This was also facilitated by the French Health Ministry reporting "confirmed cases" and "cases in social or medical-social establishments (nursing homes)" as two different quantities. After careful consideration and extensive research, we cannot confirm beyond a reasonable doubt that these two categories are mutually exclusive. For that reason, and in the interest of accuracy, we are reverting our numbers to reflect only those confirmed by the French Health Ministry and will be retroactively adjusting our time series data. We will continue to monitor the situation and will adjust our approach if a more appropriate way forward presents itself.

boogheta commented 4 years ago

Well, don't use it and produce your own data then...

Clumpton commented 4 years ago

I told you weeks ago that cases would get counted twice if you carried on like that! No disrespect, but after been accused of ignoring (or promoting) statistical bias I took my bat home because it was disrespectful!

yetzt commented 4 years ago

@boogheta i do. but all the people relying on this data have a right to know that this data is faulty and any analysis of this data is flawed because of upstream ignorance.

boogheta commented 4 years ago

Well luckily you said that on a closed issue, so the people will know for sure. Thanks for your good service of such better quality! :roll_eyes: Haters gotta hate...

Clumpton commented 4 years ago

More seriously though, what do we do about the French data? It is now quite complete giving both confirmed cases & deaths in hospitals and care homes. Additionally we have the "suspected" cases in care homes which have recently been omitted for a couple of days. Counting ALL cases (confirmed and suspected) is all very well and good but if people (read politicians) start trying to compare countries on this basis it all goes wrong. On the face of it the crisis in the UK is far less than in France - but this is entirely due to unreported equivalent data in the UK where they apparently have no idea of how many are dead or infected in care homes. I say - take out those "suspected cases" in the French data that were added in on 4/12/20 and remember that the first line of the French data includes ALL confirmed cases and deaths - including care homes image

traut21 commented 4 years ago

At least try to get it clean within a country.

negative new numbers are just a no go without any kind of explanation.