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CSSEGISandData / COVID-19

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
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Guide to COVID-19 Ratios #2520

Open MMogollon11 opened 4 years ago

MMogollon11 commented 4 years ago

I came out with five COVID-19 factors and ratios that are easy to calculate in Excel based on historical data, as well as its references, and the “look for” number, which is the tendency when the infection is reducing. Mathematicians and epidemiologists estimate how fast an epidemic will spread or recede by using mathematical models. These ratios are not about predicting the future, but to analyze historical data to determine if the epidemic is receding or not in a specific area by calculating several ratios and looking at their tendencies in an interval time t. Download the paper at https://www.mmogollon.com/corona-virus-2 Another correlation, that I found was that when the K-Ratio is around 0.5 and the R (Active) is higher than 1, which it should not be, it seems like the numbers for those countries are offset. That is the case for countries such as Iraq, Iran, Brazil, Jordan, Mexico, Nicaragua, and some other ones. Manuel Mogollon

patb88 commented 4 years ago

very nice analysis and write-up! your style is as readable as it is informative.

hey, two things... first, what is the purpose of calculating death rate? it doesnt seem to be used in any downstream calcs, but perhaps i missed it.

also, you reference China's 6.75% decent to arrive at a target date. however, everything about the US experience seems to longer and worse than the chinese baseline. why china, and did you consider other baselines in your date projection?

thanks!

pat

MMogollon11 commented 4 years ago

Pat,

You are right, and I mentioned in the document, there is no purpose in calculating the death rate, I just have there for information.

The reason to use China as a reference when the Active cases are decreasing was that, at the moment of doing the chart, China was the only country that was reducing the Active cases, the number of people still infected. Now we have some other countries that can be used as a reference, such as Italy, Spain, New Zealand.

Thanks for downloading the “Guide to COVID-19 Ratios” PDF paper. Download it again, I made some small changes in the first two pages.

Everything is in Excel, so the web site update is all manual. That is why I only do it it every three days.

Regards,

Manuel Mogollon

From: patb88 notifications@github.com Sent: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 3:49 PM To: CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 COVID-19@noreply.github.com Cc: MMogollon11 m.mogollon11@gmail.com; Author author@noreply.github.com Subject: Re: [CSSEGISandData/COVID-19] Guide to COVID-19 Ratios (#2520)

very nice analysis and write-up! your style is as readable as it is informative.

hey, two things... first, what is the purpose of calculating death rate? it doesnt seem to be used in any downstream calcs, but perhaps i missed it.

also, you reference China's 6.75% decent to arrive at a target date. however, everything about the US experience seems to longer and worse than the chinese baseline. why china, and did you consider other baselines in your date projection?

thanks!

pat

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