JustaNormalGuy230
commented
3 years ago Hi and thanks to all for bringing this to our attentions (FYI: You can safely ignore this post; it's here for informational purposes only!):
.. Usually I post all these anomalies in Death Count immediately as I see them with my monitor program, but I've been buried in tasks here, and it's difficult to duplicate all the anomalies in posts here. Every evening, I now usually post once a day, what I call an Hourly Differential Death Report, reporting the Change in Data in hourly chunks, as a first post to the Preliminary/Daily US Death Analysis ( https://www.reddit.com/r/CoViD19_Analysis/ ; Here's yesterday's US dump ):
Vetoes: CA:-449,MI:28,VA:10,IL:-1
2021-06-09 21:34:18 PDT,598764,[00:0000] 2021-06-09 22:34:24 PDT,598765,[+1:+001],PR:1 2021-06-10 03:34:58 PDT,598766,[+1:+001],MO:1 2021-06-10 06:34:14 PDT,598317,[+1:-449],CA:-449 2021-06-10 07:34:59 PDT,598318,[+1:+001],MS:1 2021-06-10 08:34:42 PDT,598342,[+4:+024],VA:10,MD:9,AL:3,WV:2 2021-06-10 09:34:39 PDT,598404,[+5:+062],AZ:27,CA:+21,IA:11,IN:2,MT:2,IL:-1 2021-06-10 10:34:48 PDT,598456,[+5:+052],PA:21,NC:16,MN:7,NJ:6,TX:2 2021-06-10 11:35:01 PDT,598546,[+5:+090],MI:45,IL:+18,NY:9,LA:7,CA:+5,SD:3,TX:+2,UT:1 2021-06-10 12:34:48 PDT,598566,[+2:+020],WI:12,NV:4,NY:+4 2021-06-10 13:34:50 PDT,598611,[+1:+045],GA:45 2021-06-10 14:35:00 PDT,598671,[+4:+060],TX:+27,KY:17,CA:+8,CT:3,NH:3,AR:2 2021-06-10 15:34:54 PDT,598673,[+1:+002],DE:2 2021-06-10 16:34:50 PDT,598716,[+4:+043],CO:15,MA:12,OR:10,NM:3,MO:+2,TX:+1 2021-06-10 17:34:54 PDT,598726,[+1:+010],WA:10 2021-06-10 19:34:28 PDT,598728,[+1:+002],TN:2 2021-06-10 20:34:14 PDT,598744,[00:+016],CA:+16 2021-06-10 21:35:01 PDT,598744,[37:-020],GA:45, MI:45, TX:32, AZ:27, PA:21, IL:17, KY:17, NC:16, CO:15, NY:13, MA:12, WI:12, IA:11, OR:10, VA:10, WA:10, MD:9, LA:7, MN:7, NJ:6, NV:4, AL:3, CT:3, MO:3, NH:3, NM:3, SD:3, AR:2, DE:2, IN:2, MT:2, TN:2, WV:2, MS:1, PR:1, UT:1, CA:-399
(This is a Compacted, Differential Death Analysis. The data is reported non-differentially every hour; if there are no hourly changes from the previous hour, the report for that hour is removed and is not missing data. The Veto List is my best assessment that evening, of possible non-daily death anomalies. The last line of the report is a non-differential summary of all tallied deaths. A "+" sign represents a differential adjustment of data for that State. So does a "-" sign, except for the very first entry for the day, in which case it is treated like an entry with no sign in front, indicating the initial report by that state. The 2-Value bracketed "[]" entries are [New State Count Reporting : Number of Deaths] Summary.)
.. By analyzing the Hourly Data Differentials, I could deduce that something strange happened at 6:30 AM PDT in CA's initial dump/report, but it appears as -449 instead of the reported -411 deaths .. What was the additional -38 death adjustment? Does anyone know and does anyone know why CA/JHU couldn't simply report the additional adjustment 1 hour later, to physically separate it (time-wise) from the initial dump? Strange, isn't it? Could it be an additional CA Death Reduction from another county besides Alameda, that was entered in the same hour? .. One can see all types of anomalies with this type of monitoring, even at the event level, which may resolve what went on.
.. In this case, it may be a death addition between confirmed/probable deaths (which would be strange and require an explanation) or some other criteria, or just "clumping" some other Death Adjustment at the same time. Anyway, if YOU can shed some light on the difference, much appreciated!
Hello all,
As described in the following article, Alameda County reduced their death count by 411 to better align with the state definition. To remove the negative delta, we have back distributed our death data using the data by "reported date" from the California dashboard. This has also resulted in a spike on 11 deaths for yesterday - this is due to the Alameda County dashboard being more timely than the California State Dashboard. We did not use the Alameda County source for the back distribution due to their death time series being organized by date of death.