Proposal Code Change...

[juanpc2018]

Hi,

The Lower Right Window in Desktop... Mainland China, Orange. Other Location, Yellow. Total Recovered, Green,

Is Not very useful...

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Why? and What to Add / Change?

The Graph is Needed for the Bell Curve, "Normal Distribution" to detect IF Virus is Undercontrol, OR Spread is Out of Control. or in the middle, the beging or the end for that region. RED, Yellow, Green. Like Traffic Light in most countries.

End of the Spread =
Deaths + Recovered - Infected = 0 = Green Dots on the Map.

Middle of the Spread = Deaths + Recovered - Infected = between 35% and 75%. Yellow Dots on the Map..

Begin = Deaths + Recovered - infected = <35%, RED Dots on the Map.

#2. modification to the Map: Hubei China: 3062 Deaths, 51553 Recovered. Death Rate = D 100 / (D+R=54615) = 5.6% Hubei Infected: (Hubei Confirmed=67786)100 / (Wikipedia Population 2015 = 58.5Million) = 0,001158%

Total China: Death Rate = 4.719% Total China Infected: 80945 * 100 / (2018 estimate = 1427647786) = 0,005669%

Total Italy: Death Rate: D=1266 100 / (D+R=4225) = 29,96% Total Italy Infected: (C=17660) 100 / P2020 = 0,02927% Population 2020 Estimate 60317546 Population 2013, Italy had 60782668

#3 Comparative: China vs. Italy:: ( TI.it / TI.cn ) = Italy has 5,163x more infected by % of total infected. (Large Value / Smaller Value Divider China Default Reference)

same for Total Deaths in %: D.it / D.cn = Italy has 9,744x times more deaths by %. (Deaths *100 / Total Population.) 307500 / 1427647786 = 0.00021538925988289943665418887848855 126600 / 60317546 = 0,00209889175531113285013286183758

#4 Add: Deaths by Sex/Gender: Male vs. Female %

#5 Modification: Deaths by Age.

#6 Add: Predicted Death Rate Outcome formula: Confirmed Infected - Deaths in % = CID Recovered - Deaths in %. = RD RD - CID = RDCID (RDCID) /2 + CID = Predicted Death Rate Outcome. for example: CID: Total China infected: 80995 Total China Deaths: 3203 Total China CID = 3,954565%

RD: Total China Recovered: 67002 Total China Deaths: 3203 Total China RD = 4,780454%

RD - CID /2 = 0,4129445% + CID = Predicted Death Rate Outcome without Resurface = 4,3675095% Accuracy of prediction = 86,67% formula: Total China infected: 80995 Total China Deaths+Recovered = 70205 *100 = 7020500 / TCi = %

Iran: Total iran infected: 12729 Total iran Deaths: 611 Total iran CID = 4,800062%

RD: Total iran Recovered: 2959 Total iran Deaths: 611 Total iran RD = 20,648867%

RD - CID /2 = 7,924402% + CID = Predicted Death Rate Outcome without Resurface = 12,724464% Accuracy of prediction = 28,04%

Links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubei https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy The Black Death pandemic of 1348 on Italy killing 1/3 of the population.

[juanpc2018]

added #6 Predicted Death Rate Outcome Formula, with Accuracy of prediction.

[juanpc2018]

#7

Predicted infected / Future infected / In The Wild infected

Formula: Infected ratio = (10 Day Ratio from Patient Zero),
Current day infected x Infected Ratio = Predicted infected.

Colombia 9 day ratio is 1:34

In the wild: Day 9 infected x 34 = 1156 Prediction Level 9 days.

For Example: Colombia https://infogram.com/covid-2019-colombia-1hkv2ne1j3xn2x3 Diagnose Date: Patient Zero 6/3/2020 "1"

Patient +1 9/3/2020 Patient +2 9/3/2020

from patient 0 to +2 its 1:3 ratio, totally unrelated, means there is more in the wild or virus source like infected money cash.

Patient +3,4,5,6,7,8 11/3/2020

from patient +2 to +8 "3:6 Ratio or 1:3"

Patient +9,10,11,12 12/3/2020 from Patient +8 to +12 6:4 = Decrease = Undercontrol or Undiagnosed / Undetected, longer incubation period or a Nomad Infected Traveler.

Patient +13,14,15 13/3/2020 4:3 = Decrease

Patient +16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23 14/3/2020 4:8 or 1:2 = Increase.

Patient +24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33 15/3/2020 8:10 = Increase.

Day 6 Patient Zero to Day 15 = 9 days. Day 15 Patient 34 = 9 Day Ratio 1:34

Source: https://infogram.com/covid-2019-colombia-1hkv2ne1j3xn2x3

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Bogota City, Colombia Spanish Flu year 1918 Infected: 40.000 Deaths: <900 2.25%

World Average: >2.5% Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate