search

CSSEGISandData / COVID-19

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
29.12k stars 18.39k forks source link

Exponential or not? I tried to make a simple plot, and data fit #920

Open jgehrcke opened 4 years ago

jgehrcke commented 4 years ago

Thanks for the data provided here. A natural question is whether the count of confirmed cases grows exponentially or not. To that end I have made a quick toolkit based on this data set.

Example: https://gehrcke.de/covid19/plot-germany.html

See https://github.com/jgehrcke/covid-19-analysis -- you can clone that and then do e.g. make plot-spain to get this HTML file with plots for Spain... Italy, USA, etc can also be done. Again, all this thanks to this great data set here :rocket:

It's nice to collaborate!

valeriupredoi commented 4 years ago

Very cool! I have done the same sort of analysis, see here https://github.com/valeriupredoi/COVID-19_LINEAR

jgehrcke commented 4 years ago

I have done the same sort of analysis

very nice, it's what I wish everyone would actually confirm, do, look at, before they talk "exponential". I mean, yeah. I think we (the two of us, and probably some others) have found that things actually are evolving pretty much ideal-exponentially in certain places. Doh.

valeriupredoi commented 4 years ago

cheers, mate! It's almost copycat - the exponential rates are 0.25-0.30 day-1 and very similar to what happened in China 4-5 days after the quarantine started 2019-ncov_lin_02-02-2020 This of course is a rough approach but it does give insight in the actual spread; not to mention that we, by grace, we'll be the first to see the effects of various quarantines, even before the media knows about it :grin: - well, I am hoping the UK will get to grips and instate one! Cheers and stay safe :beer: