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CampaignLab / data-pipeline

Scripts and schemas that aim to make data from the inventory easier to analyse
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Flytipping-143 #11

Open hannah-o-rourke opened 5 years ago

hannah-o-rourke commented 5 years ago

Key Question: Does flytipping affect vote share?

Theory Often on the doorstep people bring up anger about flytipping or rubbish - does this actually affect how people vote? If the number of flytipping instances go up does that affect vote share?

Key Data

  1. Number of flytipping incidents by local authority 2012-2017 including breakdown of types/locations of flytipping. source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/655432/lafly_incdandact_201213_201617_rev2.ods

Task Create below script to extract the data and create % increase in flytipping from 2012-2017 to explore links with 2018 election results.

eljne commented 5 years ago

Minor correlation between flytipping and a loss of Conservative seats in both Labour and Conservative incumbencies between 2014-2018 but can be explained by more flytipping actions/incidents occurring in cities and higher density population areas that swung further Labour after Brexit ref - flytipping doesn't actually affect vote share.

eljne commented 5 years ago

Data and code shared on slack #demographics channel