Episode 2: Use of masks scene Lab - air conditioning - (CUT Lab)

[agrignard]

Site: UDG/CUT (lab) howeber we have also room 104? What do we do with this? 1 Episode showing how the virus spread here.

Density Scenario: people are place with a distance of 2 meter (if we have the real desk that could be possible to run it)

Code to run (and edit) in ````StoryTelling.gaml`````

experiment Episode2 type: gui parent: Coronaizer{
    parameter 'fileName:' var: useCase category: 'file' <- "UDG/CUT/lab";
    parameter 'distance people:' var: distance_people category:'Visualization' min:0.0 max:5.0#m <- 2.0#m;
    parameter "Density Scenario" var: density_scenario category:'Initialization'  <- "num_people_room" among: ["data", "distance", "num_people_building", "num_people_room"];
    parameter 'People per Building (only working if density_scenario is num_people_building):' var: num_people_per_room category:'Initialization' min:0 max:100 <- 50;
}

This is how it look so far

TODO: CAN WE HAVE THE REAL DESK LAYOUT HERE?

[LAAP]

Hi @agrignard

No idea about which room is best. @gamalielpalomo , @milkmonica , any answer?

In the other side some small clarifications:

2 sub episode:

Pre-COVID19 = No Mask (big sprawl) and COVID19 = mask (lower sprawl)

Density Scenarios:

Pre-COVID19 = 10 students per Lab COVID19 = people are place with a distance of 2 meter (if we have the real desk that could be possible to run it)

The rest as you have it below

[agrignard]

You have 4 sub episode here? Or is it a mistake form a copy/paste?

[LAAP]

@agrignard , There are 2 sub-episoids, but we always show 2 things per episoid: the use NO use of masks with pre COVID density and, the Use of Masks with a new COVID density. Does it makes sense?

[agrignard]

I though we show the mask just in Episode 1 no? And then we assume everyone wear mask or what?

[LAAP]

In all the episodes we show "pre-COVID" Scenario, no masks, no nothing VS "COVID" scenario, Masks, low density, ventilation, distancing, etc. So, we show with and without masks in all the episodes.

Yes, in the "COVID" scenario, everyone (or at least 90% of people) will be wearing masks, so infection do not spreads

On the other side The pre-COVID scenario is "PRE-COVID", but with the COVID infection going on, so a lot of people should get infected

[agrignard]

I lost a bit inspiration here.

hwo do we want the clear difference betwsen the 2 episode? Just by playin with the number of infection?

[agrignard]

Firt attempt work in progress

Natural ventilation: lots of droplets and far AC: fewer droplet and close

WIP

[agrignard]

@gamalielpalomo and @milkmonica now that most of the feature are finally here and all the dxf are all ready can you start to propose some content for this Episode? Let me know if you have any trouble to produce video with GAMA

[LAAP]

@agrignard ,

Same than in episode 1, @gamalielpalomo and @milkmonica should give us the specific "details of the UDG protocols for LABs" so we can adapt the simulation to UDG challenges.

In here, I really like the idea of comparison of natural ventilation with AC. However, we should see the meaning of it now that COVID is Airborne and not only Droplet based Air droplets maybe not very affected by AC or ventilation, but aerosols yes:

"There is little evidence that ventilation directly reduces the risk of disease transmission, but many studies suggest that insufficient ventilation increases disease transmission. A number of studies have looked at the possible transmission routes of diseases, but few have looked at the direct impact of ventilation on disease transmission." (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143278/)

"Increasing ventilation rate can effectively reduce the risk of long-range airborne transmission, while it may be of little useful in preventing the droplet-borne transmission. To maintain the airflow direction from clean cubicles to dirty cubicles is an effective way to prevent the cross infection between cubicles, which is widely used in hospital isolation rooms." (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6072925/)

In that sense, I am not sure about your simplification. My interpretation is:

• Natural ventilation: lots of droplets and far = BUT MORE air renovation, so that affects to the sprawl of the virus by aerosols = maybe "infectious load from droplets dissolves a bit or not but" but with Natural Air renewals every minute by the window I think that aerosols dissipate and "infectious load dissolves a bit" isn't it?

• AC: fewer droplet and close = If air renovations is very little (traditional AC usually works with re-circulation of air and maybe 10% of new air by renovation) and no HEPA filters... then, This can mean that AC is not helping and it is increasing the "infectious load". Please read the following article: https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-17/an-analysis-of-three-covid-19-outbreaks-how-they-happened-and-how-they-can-be-avoided.html

[agrignard]

Update on the 09/09/2020

This is what we haev so far integrating all the recent changes made to show the impact of natural ventilation vs AC Scenario A

Scenario B

We need to validate this one together so we can produce a video. As it is I consider it as final unless I get "doable" request

[LAAP]

@agrignard ,

I think this scenario is not working. I think we shouldn't show this as it is now

As I have commented several times and as you can read in the articles that I have shared NORMAL Air conditioning (like the one that most buildings have) can be much worse spreading the virus than Natural ventilation. Actually, that is the issue in Cafeterias and Bars that are closed indoor spaces.

With that in Mind, The scenario of Natural ventilation should be better than the Air conditioning one.

[agrignard]

Yep your right, it has been fixed in https://github.com/CityScope/CS_Proxymix/commit/c2772f0d4e8b422217c181b88382e8f39beeb9af (so basically a ventilated room now is a room with natural ventilation)

[LAAP]

Awesome @agrignard! Thank you!

[LAAP]

From the videos sent by @agrignard:

• Episode2_A: NATURAL VENTILATION should be the option "B". Here, in the top of natural ventilation we have to add the following measures: -Time inside of the room needs to be just 45 min (instead of 3h) -Everyone should have a mask, -The density needs to be reduce to 50% (from 35 students to 17students) -Everyone should keep the 1 or 2m physical distance (or/and lines)
• Episode2_B: AC VENTILATION should be the option "A". This video is cool, only few changes are needed: People get infected very quickly, can we have less "initial infected people" in the room (now we have 10 out of 35, that is almost 30% of the population already being infected). Maybe we can reduce them into 3 or 5 "initial infected people", and see the slow evolution of the risk during the 3h. What do you think?

[agrignard]

OK the change have been made let's see how it looks

[LAAP]

Awesome @agrignard ,

WTB, This is the latest in COVID and ventilation:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2

"The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9). Conclusions: It is plausible that closed environments contribute to secondary transmission of COVID-19 and promote superspreading events. Our findings are also consistent with the declining incidence of COVID-19 cases in China, as gathering in closed environments was prohibited in the wake of the rapid spread of the disease."

[agrignard]

I consider this Episode done. Feel to reopen a specific issue if needed

[LAAP]

@agrignard , Can you share a video of the final Episode 2 before closing this Episode?

[agrignard]

I will though you can also simply run the model from your computer ;-)

[agrignard]

As we are now starting the validation process of this model and that the final video has been released I consider these Episode issues as closed. Please feel free to reopen it or to create more specific issue related to the model itself not to the Video

[LAAP]

Hi @agrignard , does this means that we will have not "outdoor-path-following" model?

[agrignard]

"outdoor-path-following" model?? This is not related to this Episode isn't it?

[LAAP]

Ah! Sorry! I don't know why I was looking in to the issue of the last episode, but my comment finished here, hahahah!

[LAAP]

@agrignard I think you can start shooting in a lower level, what about here?:

Questions about the spec? imdfquestions@apple.com

[agrignard]

For the dedicated path of course it needs to be implemented but I want to move a bit forward the exercice of the 5 Episode and having something closer to a ToolKit easy to replciate to other cases

[LAAP]

That sounds great! Let's do it!