search

DARPA-ASKEM / program-milestones

Repository for materials related to program milestone hackathon and evaluation events
6 stars 10 forks source link

CIEMSS 18-month Epi Scenario 1 #67

Closed djinnome closed 6 months ago

VigneshSella commented 6 months ago

W.I.P

VigneshSella commented 6 months ago

@djinnome We could probably merge this into main if you'd like. Scenario 1 is as complete as it can be given the prompt and lack of model availability (which is unlikely to change over the next day).

djinnome commented 6 months ago

Can you elaborate on the lack of model availability issue?

VigneshSella commented 6 months ago

Can you elaborate on the lack of model availability issue?

As far as I'm aware: (a) there is no appropriate model available for scenario 1 which can handle the stratification. And (b) the question might be ill-posed as it requires information on prob_hospitalization, which is only available for SEIRHD models - but we're asked to fit/calibrate a SEIRD model.

As was discussed in the hotwash on Tuesday we to let this go and optimize for beta/gamma instead, but we would still need (a).