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Ecosystem Demography Model
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Spatially Explicit ED for Agroforestry #45

Open kevinwolz opened 9 years ago

kevinwolz commented 9 years ago

Hi all, My name is Kevin Wolz, and I'm a PhD student at UIUC. I've worked sporadically with a few of you in the past (hey there @mdietze, @ryankelly-uiuc, @serbinsh, @dlebauer), but I'm pretty new to ED and this group.

I come to you from the world of agroforestry. Specifically, my work focuses on mixed-species agroforestry systems, where multiple plant functional types are integrated into a a single system (e.g. canopy trees, shrubs, and ground cover). I utilize several field sites here at Illinois to understand how the transition from corn/soy to food-producing woody systems will effect biogeochemical processes. However, since there are an infinite number of possible agroforestry designs, crops, orientations, etc., field sites are not enough. Models are critical.

A really great review of modeling in mixed-species ag systems (including agroforesty systems) can be found here: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1051%2Fagro%3A2007057. Honestly, this article is quite depressing. This article concludes with: "Today, it is barely feasible to simulate multi-species systems and, due to the absence of efficient models, it is difficult to understand the effects of the different factors that interact within those systems." As developers of the preeminent model that does exactly this, I imagine you would take serious offense to this conclusion.

The truth is that most of the agroforesty models included in that review, as well as most others, have been all but abandoned because they were either overly simplistic (i.e just dealt with competition for light) or were created for very specific systems. The state of the modeling science in that community is pathetic, at best. Most attempts to model agroforesrty systems have started from the agronomy side of things and then tried to layer in ecological complexity. This is not only difficult, but, I think, a complete waste of time since ED already has most of that ecological complexity!

WE NEED ED!

I think ED can become a major asset for the agroforestry community, and my vision is to adapt ED for use in these types of systems. While there are many minor tweaks that would help enable ED for use in agroforestry, there is one critical need: making ED spatially explicit. What I mean by this is that individuals in each PFT need to be arranged in a specific spatial pattern in the landscape. To make this a bit clearer (I hope), the image below shows example systems that we are studying here at Illinois. They represent the "typical" agroforestry system: parallel rows of one or more woody species separated by an "alley" that can be used for row crops, grazing, etc.

ed_explanation

So, I'm throwing this out there to this community because, while I am extremely excited about this, I neither have the time nor the skill set to make this happen. I honestly don't even know how monstrous the task I'm proposing is. Is this the scope of a late night's work? A master's thesis? An entire career? Any and all ideas, suggestions, condemnations, or anything else would be deeply appreciated. All of us working in this field are just spinning our wheels on the modeling side of things. I just wanted to break down the wall and open communication with those of you on the other side...

Looking forward to discussing and collaborating!

mdietze commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz, spatially explicit is overkill here -- you don't need to know where every tree in the forest is across the whole field since you've got a simple repeating pattern. you just need the model to be aware of the LOCAL pattern, which is much easier (for truly spatially explicit ED is the wrong model)

For dealing with local spatial pattern there's different degrees of complexity you might want here:

1) radiative transfer: there are probably RTMs that can deal with this sort of arrangement without having to resort to a fully implemented 3D ray tracing model (@serbinsh any suggestions?) in which case you could just incorporate that logic into the ED RTM. If not, these systems are simple enough that you could probably work it out. What you want is a way of estimating the light each tree gets without having to do a spatially-explicit calculation for a whole volume of voxels

2) soils: option 1 is to have homogeneous soils and just weight water and nutrient uptake by distance. Option 2, analogous to the 3d RTM is to do 3d soil voxels as well

If you do the 3d voxel route for everything the key would be to set up your patch-level topology to be wrapping (ie a torous) so your explicit calculation is limited to just one pattern repeat

I'd guesstimate that the first approach would be a couple months, while the second voxel approach is a year or so

DanielNScott commented 9 years ago

Hey Kevin, it's awesome that you're just throwing this on the wiki. I would add to Mike's comment that the time-frame is definitely (probably obviously, but it bears noting) skill dependent.

Here's a question for folks generally: How good of an approximation would modelling the unit of repetition with the model AS IS, then up-scaling be? It seems offhand like it would be quick, easy, and could potentially provide reasonable results. Also please forgive me if this is clearly addressed in the article, I haven't had time to read it yet.

fabeit commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz If you are modeling only a few species I belive it might be a better idea to pick models that work with single species. I am too interested in implementing some sort of spatial explicit component in ED because I am interested in seed dispersion and spatial forest structure.

dlebauer commented 9 years ago

@fabeuw I spoke with @kevinwolz about using a single species crop model, but I couldn't figure out how to do multiple species within a mixed canopy, without effectively making the model handle multiple species. I'd be open to ideas for how to do this with a single species model.

On Wed, Apr 15, 2015 at 9:35 AM, fabeuw notifications@github.com wrote:

@kevinwolz https://github.com/kevinwolz If you are modeling only a few species I belive it might be a better idea to pick models that work with single species. I am too interested in implementing some sort of spatial explicit component in ED because I am interested in seed dispersion and spatial forest structure.

— Reply to this email directly or view it on GitHub https://github.com/EDmodel/ED2/issues/45#issuecomment-93401877.

fabeit commented 9 years ago

@dlebauer When I mentioned models working with single species, I meant models that do not work with PFT but that include one or more species. I think this is a better choice in an agroforestry situation where you have something like 2/3 monocultures in the same cell and of these species I imagine there is a lot of physiological information. If you were to use ED a lot of that empirical information on your species of interest will be generalized by using PFT. Does that make sense? I can think of 3D-CMCC model for example, and you might not even need something spatially explicit, at least to begin with, but I don't know much about AF. For example It might be more important the orientation of the rows of crop N/S or E/W than the actual fine spatial arrangement.

dlebauer commented 9 years ago

@fabeuw That make sense. I found a paper on 3D-CMCC and a website for 3D-CMCC that says 'code available upon request', which implies a restrictive re-use policy (though maybe this will change after the paper is published?). It looks interesting, but importantly it uses light use efficiency to predict growth rather than a model of photosynthesis and leaf-level gas exchange.

fabeit commented 9 years ago

The paper has already been published so I am not sure what the policy on the code is, I can probably get you the code for though ;-), but yes it does use a more simplified model for certain things, but not always you need to simulate everything with the highest detail possible. I think 3D-CMCC might be a more efficient use of time and computing resources in certain cases, but I don't have an in depth understanding of the model compared to others to give you an opinion.

DanielNScott commented 9 years ago

Just a note, re the pft / specific species issue, one can run ED with a re-parametrization of any given PFT or set of PFTs to make them representative of some given species pretty easily. Or maybe I'm missing your point about that @fabeuw?

dlebauer commented 9 years ago

@danielnscott, indeed we have used ED2 to simulate monocultures of Switchgrass, Miscanthus, Willow, and Poplar eg Dietze et al, 2014

fabeit commented 9 years ago

@DanielNScott I was under the impression that a PFT in ED has some other mechanism in place that could not represent a single species, but I guess I was wrong. Regardless, my question still stands if whether ED might outperform a more simplified model in a agroforestry simulation. Unrelated, but for example in this paper http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/513/2015/bg-12-513-2015.html it's difficult to pick a clear winner between BIOME, ED, and ZELIG

kevinwolz commented 9 years ago

Sorry all...I guess I didn't have this whole notification thing working right...

Great discussion so far!

@mdietze, I'm not sure I agree that spatially explicit is overkill...some of the specific questions we will want to ask have to do row orientation, tree spacing, row spacing, within row shrub layers vs. offset row shrub layers. For many of these questions, species composition, density, and even distance to other species all stay the same.

SORTIE is the only model I have found that can do spatially explicit and is still used. The problem with SORTIE is that it only deals with light competition. No below-ground interactions. Blah. Especially since we know that below-ground interactions are typically the driving interactions in these systems.

I had not before seen the 3D-CMCC model (thanks for that!), and it seems worthy, but I really don't see what the explicit advantages it has for this application over head. Both deal with multiple species/PFTs, but neither are spatially explicit. 3D-CMCC is actually quite a bit simpler than ED, which may be a positive or a negative. Can anyone identify what the specific pros/cons would be of using this model rather than ED?

All that said, I'm intrigued by the idea mentioned by @danielnscott to model the unit of repetition with ED as is, and then up-scaling be. I'm not sure I understand how modeling a single unit of repetition would be different than another approach, though. For the first 10 years or so, we typically assume that there will not be any interactions between the rows in an agroforestry system. Beyond that, there will certainly be some interactions. What do you think of this suggestion @mdietze and @dlebauer?

As always, it seems like each model has its pros and cons, with no model that has everything I need. Starting to wonder if an appropriate route would be to couple two or more models in someway...

One more thing to note really quick...this may have been obvious, but it's worth noting explicitly for everyone. In an agroforestry setting, there will be no recruitment, seed dispersal, mortality, or any other of these dynamic spatial processes. Just an initial community composition/locations and the growth over time. Maybe that helps simplify the requirements a bit?

fabeit commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz I am also interested in knowing what people think about how 3D-CMCC stacks up again ED.

mdietze commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz to me "spatially explicit" means that you would need to know the x-y location of every tree on the entire farm, that's what I think is overkill. I don't think you should abandon your questions of orientation and distance but am saying that these are all captured in a repeating pattern that's tiled across the landscape. Because the pattern repeats you don't need to simulate the entirety of the whole farm, just one repeat of the pattern. I agree with @DanielNScott that it's worth trying this with the 'off-the-shelf' version of ED to see how well it does against field data. @kevinwolz the OTS version does let you approximate issues of spacing (by controlling the densities of the different species), just not their explicit orientation.

Finally, I disagree that there will be no dispersal, recruitment, and mortality. The first two may be negligible (and are easy to turn off in ED by setting seedling mortality to 100%) but I know we saw non-negligble mortality at the EBI Energy Farm and if you're testing different spacings you'll want to make sure that none cause elevated mortality.

fabeit commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz How can there no mortality? Don't you also want to simulate things such as water stress or too much water for example if you get a lot of precip?

kevinwolz commented 9 years ago

Anyone have any thoughts on the SORTIE-ND model? It was originally developed by Canham and Pacala in the 90s, went through a major renovation in the early 2000s, and has since been slowed added to. We are starting to play around with it for agroforestry stuff and I'm liking it so far.

You can read more about it here: http://www.sortie-nd.org/index.html

mdietze commented 9 years ago

@kevinwolz there's a direct academic lineage from SORTIE to ED. Moorcroft and Hurtt were working with Pacala at Princeton when they derived the original ED code. In concept you can think of ED's scaling approach as a moment closure approximation to SORTIE (though lots of other physiology, biogeochem, and biophysics got added in as well)

ghost commented 9 years ago

Hello to everybody, accidentally I've seen this discussion on 3D-CMCC. I'm the modeller who wrote 3D-CMCC years ago and I'm still working on it. We have published on August a new application of the new version 5.1 (http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/8/6867/2015/gmdd-8-6867-2015.html). If someone of you could be interested to the model code we could share the code and the technical guide to use it. Sorry for intrusion. Alessio

ghost commented 8 years ago

anyway, if someone is still interested to 3D-CMCC there's the online publication (free) at:

http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/479/2016/

on I hope soon the code at:

https://github.com/alessiocollati/3D-CMCC-FEM