@camerondow35 , I don't know that we want to get into this, but there are a couple lines related to this:
Comment from Justin (first round of comments):
My big picture feedback is similar to Loic's in that it is drought focused. I think there are two drought components missing, one is the summer drought which it seems you all are thinking through. To add to this discussion, I will add that radial growth in the eastern US show pervasive drought legacies (paper attached) in growth mainly due to late season drought. So it may not only be that spring temp and summer temp are linked during the current year but also that autumn drought could have an impact the following year and may weaken the response to spring temperature, if that makes sense. Interestingly, other phenology responses at least at MMSF do not seem to have these legacies so this could be one possible contribution to the disconnect (2nd paper attached). The 2nd point that came to mind was when talking about warming springs in the future. At some point those warmer temps will increase water demand so one would expect an offset to the benefit of warmer spring temps at some point, right?
spring leaf phenology delayed by autumn warming
Beil et al. 2021 GCB (#70 ) shows this, and cites other studies showing it.
Our data
There's a signal of negative effects of previous late summer on annual growth, but little for fall. We haven't analyzed how phenology is affected (and probably don't have the sample size to do so)
@camerondow35 , I don't know that we want to get into this, but there are a couple lines related to this:
Comment from Justin (first round of comments):
My big picture feedback is similar to Loic's in that it is drought focused. I think there are two drought components missing, one is the summer drought which it seems you all are thinking through. To add to this discussion, I will add that radial growth in the eastern US show pervasive drought legacies (paper attached) in growth mainly due to late season drought. So it may not only be that spring temp and summer temp are linked during the current year but also that autumn drought could have an impact the following year and may weaken the response to spring temperature, if that makes sense. Interestingly, other phenology responses at least at MMSF do not seem to have these legacies so this could be one possible contribution to the disconnect (2nd paper attached). The 2nd point that came to mind was when talking about warming springs in the future. At some point those warmer temps will increase water demand so one would expect an offset to the benefit of warmer spring temps at some point, right?
spring leaf phenology delayed by autumn warming
Beil et al. 2021 GCB (#70 ) shows this, and cites other studies showing it.
Our data
There's a signal of negative effects of previous late summer on annual growth, but little for fall. We haven't analyzed how phenology is affected (and probably don't have the sample size to do so)