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Cerberus should have strong preference towards Gates of Hades under 25% #5156

Open Steam-arch opened 2 years ago

Steam-arch commented 2 years ago

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Currently Cerberus seems to use GoH with a 20-35% chance under 25% HP (this is just a guess and might be wrong!).

Era Goh counts: Counted (only tanking from the front) tp move totals from era vids.

Totals under 24% HP: Ulutation: 38 Magma Hoplotion 37 Sulfurous Breath 21 Lavaspit 28 Gates of Hades 89

Total tp moves 213, GoH Ratio 41,78%.

Conclusion: GoH chance is slightly too low but what it should be, who knows

image

Below most videos used and the tp move totals: Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWCWQlRBxRE Ulutation 12 Magma Hoplotion 12 Sulfurous breath
3 Lavaspit 10 Gates of hades 28

Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4IgygjDsno&t=323s Ulutation 11 Magma Hoplotion 3 Sulfurous breath
4 Lavaspit 5 Gates of Hades 17

Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYXhDEGy5qY Ulutation 3 Magma Hoplotion 2 Sulfurous Breath 2 Lavaspit 1 Gates of Hades 8

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_iBL2q3fiE Ulutation 4 Magma Hoplotion 6 Sulfurous breath 1 Lavaspit 3 Gates of Hades 10

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA1c6Qb16g8 (bad video, propably a few more gohs than I marked) Ulutation 6
Magma Hoplotion 5 Sulfurous Breath 5 Lavaspit 3 Gates of Hades 11

Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbaagm61LzM Ulutation 2 Magma Hoplotion 5 Sulfurous Breath 4 Lavaspit 6 Gates of hades 9

Shorter Random videos combined Ulutation 0 Magna Hoplotion 4 Sulfurous Breath 2 Lavaspit 0 Gates of hades 6

Steam-arch commented 2 years ago

Did a retail test: image so above 18% HP 7/30 = 23.333% Below 17% HP 34/72 = 47.22% Xabats small video was a similar result but its pretty short.

Retail Video test for 25%-0% was 41,78% (most of those video cerbs are below 20% though which muddies the waters abit)

Atm seems like its option B: normal 20% chance of using GoH at 25-18% HP and 17-0% its atleast double chance between 40% - 50 %

(I can upload video if need)

Steam-arch commented 2 years ago

Retail 20/07 cerberus GoH Ratio test with HP%s included

20% 13/45 = 28,88%

19% 14/44 =31,81%

18% 15/44 = 34,09%

17% 17/41 =41,46%

16% 5/22 = 22,72%

14% 14/25 = 56%

2nd GoH after first GoH Chance 25%-16% tested HP (calced from logs) 16/38 = 42,01%

3rd GoH after back to back GoHs 25-16% tested HP (calced from logs) 6/12 = 50% (im sorry I missed 4 from this, doing this at 3AM, ill recheck these & edit later, maybe) 4th GoH after 3x back to back GoHs (adding later to get more accurate %s)

2nd GoH after first GoH chance 14-0% tested HP (calced from logs) 5/12 = 41,66%

3rd GoH after back to back GoHs 14-0% tested HP (calced from logs) 3/5 = 60% 4th GoH after 3x back to back GoHs (adding later to get more accurate %s)

If we take 2nd, 3rd & 4th & 5th in a row GoHs out of the samples we get the aproximate chance for first TP move to be GoH.

25%-16%HP 42/172 =24,44% (note! this still includes a minor inaccuracy, it will go down by 1-3%, ill flesh it out later)

14%-0% HP NOTE: ill add 17/07 cerberus 10-0% GoH logs in this because we only took 25 samples 20/07 cerb below 14% ):

12/43 =27,90% (might go down 1-3% will flesh out later) (this is basically 17/07 below 10% samples + combined with below 20/07 below 14% samples and taken out the 2nd and 3rd in a row GoHs because they seem to have a double % of occurring)

Retail 17/07 Cerberus smaller sample size test but ill throw these in here (this focused on sub 17%HP testing so +18% HP has a very small sample size):

2nd GoH after first GoH Chance 25%-18% tested HP 1/7 = 14,28% (pretty sure this sample size was heavily affected by luck)

3rd GoH back to back back 0/1 = 0% (only 1 sample)

2nd GoH after first GoH Chance at 17-0% tested HP 11/19 = 57,89 %

3rd GoH after back to back GoHs chance at 17%-0% tested HP 5/10 = 50% (missed 1 here too fml, ill recheck later to get the ratio correct)

2nd GoH after first GoH Chance after 10%-0% HP (counting these here so I can exclude them from sample size to count the non boosted 1st tp move GoH % for 15-0% cerberus merging the two cerbs tested) 5/8 3rd GoH after back to back GoHs chance after 10-0% HP 2/5 4th GoH 1/2 5th GoH 1/1

Ill Flesh this out abit later (just wanted to save this before I go to bed), but so far im leaning towards:

Conclusion : Cerberus 25-16% HP = 1st tp move GoH chance of ~20%, After each GoH it has a ~40% chance of using it again Cerberus 15-0% HP = 1st tp move GoH chance ~25%, After each GoH it has a ~50% chance of using it again

Something like that anyways. Will flesh out later

Steam-arch commented 1 year ago

Alright last retail cerb test 23/07:

Was trying to get samples from 25-20% HP, 20-15% HP, 15-10 Hp and sub 10%

25-20% HP 43/101 = 42,57%

20-15% HP 31/96 = 32,29%

15-10% 39/100 = 39%

10-0% 12/37 = 32,43%

So.... this time there wasnt even a real difference in %s nor was there a difference in % of back to back GoHs..., Pretty sure just getting trolled by rng or theres some retarded code behind it that we will never know.

Anyways Lets just pretend its a static chance: Total from all 3 cerbs: 244/657 = 37.138%