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Energy Policy Simulator - United States
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Update ISIC Codes to Handle Expansion in Latest OECD Data #207

Open jrissman opened 2 years ago

jrissman commented 2 years ago

The EPS uses a set of ISIC codes based on those available in OECD economic data tables, which the OECD produce for a wide variety of countries and provide for free. We split several ISIC codes where it is important to do so for EPS model accuracy.

OECD released a new version of their economic data, and they have split some ISIC codes themselves, allowing for greater detail. Here are links to the updated data tables we use:

The ISIC splits they made (relative to the previous set of tables) include:

We currently painstakingly split pharmaceuticals from chemicals, and we separate out the water and waste from the energy supply (as OECD now does), plus we further subdivide ISIC 35 into electricity (ISIC 351) and energy pipelines and gas processing (ISIC 352-353). We will have less work to do to make these splits in the future by using the updated OECD data.

The OECD dividing up transportation services (ISIC 49-53) will be of help to us, as it could replace the use of vehicle manufacturers in the transportation demand macroeconomic feedback loop, at least for freight transport demand. This should fix issue #117.

While it would be technically possible to recombine categories where the split is not useful for EPS (for example, we don't need fishing broken out), re-combining ISIC codes may not be worthwhile, as the best accuracy and least data manipulation might involve keeping all the ISIC codes provided by the OECD (and then splitting some where absolutely necessary, as in the case of energy utilities). Therefore, we do not presently plan on recombining any ISIC codes. Instead, we will update the EPS core structure to work with a larger number of ISIC codes, so as to reflect the newly expanded categories provided by the OECD (plus some additional splits where needed).

The "Industry Category" subscript will need to be expanded to match where the expanded ISIC codes are also industry categories. This might only apply to fishing, since pharma and chemicals are already split in the industry categories. This might involve making some minor assumptions about fishing energy use in the Industry Sector input files.

The upgrade of the OECD economic data makes the prospect of moving to a different source like the EXIO database (see issue #133) less appealing, but EXIO might still be useful in certain circumstances, particularly for countries that are not included in the OECD's database.