Recalibrate U.S. vehicle choice logit function share weights

[jrissman]

In 3.3.1, we added the following types of vehicle-related costs:

• Vehicle insurance costs
• Vehicle parking costs
• Vehicle licensing, registration, and property tax costs

All of these costs apply equally to EV and ICE vehicles. Therefore, when we were adding these costs, we assumed they wouldn’t make a meaningful difference in consumer choice between EVs and ICEs. But they do have a small effect because they change the percentage cost difference between EVs and ICEs. For example, when omitting the three costs listed above, the EV sales percentage in 2030 with a constant $9,800/vehicle subsidy rises from 29.9% to 32.4%, a difference of 2.5 percentage points.

We probably ought to recalibrate the share weights (in trans/TTS) given the change in methodology. If we want to update to newer vehicle pricing data, this would be a good opportunity to do that, ahead of recalibrating the share weights. (We can recalibrate the logit exponent too (in trans/TTLE), if needed, but it might be fine.)

[mkmahajan]

Completed now that we have updated all transportation files for AEO 2022 and manually added the new LDV fuel economy standards (which were not reflected in AEO). Also updated the vehicle buyer discount rate to be higher, reflecting some recent studies from RFF.