EnergyInnovation / eps-us

Energy Policy Simulator - United States
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Add avoided warming to the EPS #234

Open mkmahajan opened 2 years ago

mkmahajan commented 2 years ago

We had Yangyang Xu, a professor from Texas A&M, reach out to us because he found the EPS and thought it would be interesting to collaborate on adding a climate component. Robbie and I had a call with Yangyang last week to talk through the possibility. It sounds like mathematically, it would be fairly straightforward to take the change in pollutants from the EPS and use them as input to a system of equations that relate changing pollutant concentrations to temperature impacts (doesn't sound like there is any special optimization of mathematics involved). The one caveat is that we'd need to have an input data variable for BAU global pollutants (similar to how we currently have global estimates for some technology deployment). The EPS would then output how the policy-induced changes in pollutant affect the global temperature, which Yangyang thinks is a reasonable approach given pollutants are largely well mixed in the atmosphere.

Yangyang shared a paper of his approach and offered to share the corresponding code in matlab or python. He suggested if we wanted to pursue this, we could try adding the calculations for CO2 to Vensim as a starting point. Ramanathan_et_al-2021-Nature_Sustainability.supplement.pdf Ramanathan_et_al-2021-Nature_Sustainability.pdf

We thought that this could be a nice feature to add if it is a relatively easy lift, but not critical since we are not often asked about warming impacts.