search

EnergyInnovation / eps-us

Energy Policy Simulator - United States
GNU General Public License v3.0
22 stars 7 forks source link

LDV sales too high compared to real world data #258

Closed robbieorvis closed 1 year ago

robbieorvis commented 1 year ago

Zack from RMI noted that our sales of 22 million vehicles in 2022 is far higher than real world data, closer to 15 million. Peak historical sales are around 17-18 million/year, but the EPS is getting upwards of 24 million by the mid 2020s.

A data update, probably to vehicle lifetime, might be required to bring this into balance correctly.

robbieorvis commented 1 year ago

Okay, confirmed that this is an issue and that a good fix is adjusting AVL in combination with SOCDtINtY until the sales values align nicely. The attached files do this for LDV passegners. We may consider another round of calibration for other vehicle types. [Share of Cargo Dist Transported that is New This Year.xlsx](https://github.com AVL.csv Avg Vehicle Lifetime.xlsx /EnergyInnovation/eps-us/files/10195818/Share.of.Cargo.Dist.Transported.that.is.New.This.Year.xlsx) SoCDTtiNTY-frgt.csv SoCDTtiNTY-psgr.csv

I may put this into a 3.4.4.1 update, given it's an easy data-only fix, but is relevant for some of the other work we are doing on transportation sector modeling in particular.

robbieorvis commented 1 year ago

Final update here: I went ahead and did the calibration for all onroad vehicles. LDV freight was fine as is. There is no data for HDV passengers so I left it. That just means I updated HDV freight in addition to LDV passenger. Final files attached. Share of Cargo Dist Transported that is New This Year.xlsx SoCDTtiNTY-frgt.csv SoCDTtiNTY-psgr.csv Avg Vehicle Lifetime.xlsx AVL.csv

robbieorvis commented 1 year ago

Completed in b15f92a