New heat stress data

[matamadio]

We have quite outdated and low-res WBGT layers from VITO analysis. WBGT considers heavy labour under heat conditions, hence it is good to measure impact on health,

but it doesn't match with physical temperature and thus 1) generates a bit of confusion in the map interpretation 2) cannot be applied to other exp categories such as crop. Also, does not cover extreme cold.

We should explore the chance to switch to another metric, or add another metric: Universal Thermal Climate Index

More details about the indicator and thresholds Even more details

We would also have the projections from Copernicus.

However, it would need to be turned into a probabilistic layer of extremes. See #16

[stufraser1]

100% yes.

[artessen]

That's a very good point, and the probabilistic layer of extreme heat would be quite useful. I will start downloading the ERA5-UTCI from CDS and kick-start addressing this issue.

[matamadio]

Thanks Arthur for successfully completing the analysis!

We now have daily min and max over period 1940-2020 in °C for 10 return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, 200, 250, 500, 1000 years). Most likely we will only consider up to RP100.

Preview of RP 20 daily MAX (°C)

Compared with RP 20 WBGT, seems very consistent:

Additional indices to be produced:

• Mean
• Days above/below thresholds - TBD Propose:
  • days over 32
  • days over 38
  • days over 46
  • days below 0
  • days below -13
  • days below -27

A short tech doc will be added to the data. @stufraser1 can I share with you for review?

[stufraser1]

Please do

---

From: Mattia Amadio @.> Sent: Wednesday, November 23, 2022 9:55:05 AM To: GFDRR/CCDR-tools @.> Cc: Stuart Fraser @.>; Mention @.> Subject: Re: [GFDRR/CCDR-tools] New heat stress data (Issue #14)

Thanks Arthur for successfully completing the analysis!

We now have daily min and max over period 1940-2020 in °C for 10 return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, 200, 250, 500, 1000 years). Most likely we will only consider up to RP100.

Preview of RP 10 daily MAX (°C) [immagine]https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/44863827/203516467-60459155-1854-4d45-a6fd-3897bae0c0d8.png

Additional indices to be produced:

• Mean
• Days above/below thresholds - TBD

A short tech doc will be added to the data. @stufraser1https://github.com/stufraser1 can I share with you for review?

— Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHubhttps://github.com/GFDRR/CCDR-tools/issues/14#issuecomment-1324797401, or unsubscribehttps://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AC7PNYUNEFINJLIX7JZ4HJTWJXSXTANCNFSM6AAAAAARXBR34Y. You are receiving this because you were mentioned.Message ID: @.***>

[matamadio]

From Nick:

Sally Beth Murray is leading a team producing a CCDR guidance note on heat analysis. She could advise more about where she sees data gaps for conducting heat analysis in CCDR. As a starting point, I think having datasets for a present day reference period and future time periods (under the SSP scenarios most used in the CCDRs) corresponding to the impact channels mentioned below could be useful. It would take a bit more thinking to confirm whether there is a gap in the publicly available datasets and if VITO could fill it - but interested to hear what options they can propose.

Modeling use case	Data requirements
Labor productivity loss	Max daily temperature / WBGT (accounting for UHI) - present and future periods or: lost working hours per year (for low, medium, high intensity work as defined by exertion level in Watts*) - present and future periods
Health impacts	Number of hot nights per year (WBGT) Heatwave days per year - present and future periods
Infrastructure impacts	Hours per year above given air temperature threshold (eg. 35°C) - present and future periods

Link to labour loss functions in publications by Kjellstrom or other authors. Intensity categories are defined under ISO standards.

Existing global datasets on heat hazard

More to be added, eg. the dataset the NBS team uses in their scans. Perhaps we can ask an STC to develop out the table.

Name	Description
Zhang et al	1km gridded dataset of air temperatures (2003-2010) based on weather station data (accounts for UHI).
UHE-Daily (Tuholske et al)	Count of hot-humid days (1983-2016). Note: currently available in a city-by-city dataset but will be released as gridded raster data soon.
CHC-CMIP6	Projections of daily max temperature and WBGT for 2030 and 2050 under SSPs2-4.5 and 5-8.5 at 5km resolution (UHI accounted for). Currently undergoing peer review