GeoscienceAustralia / tcrm

A statistical-parametric model for assessing wind hazard from tropical cyclones
http://geoscienceaustralia.github.io/tcrm
Other
80 stars 52 forks source link

Query on storm translational speeds and subsequent track density in the Atlantic #108

Open richsdixon opened 3 years ago

richsdixon commented 3 years ago

Hopefully the chart below is clear - I've plotted out a number of tracks for the Atlantic and noticed how "wriggly" they tend to be which implied to me too slow a translational speed. The chart below shows - on the left - the HURDAT translational speeds versus those in the TCRM. You can see that much of the time - aside from in the far south and maybe far north of the Atlantic region that the tracks are moving at about half the speed of their usual motion.

Also, on the right of the plot I've shown the spatial frequency of 100 years' worth of storm in the HURDAT database (in this case 1917-2016) and the TCRM for 2 lots of the 50-year simulations.

image

You can see that slowness of the storms means that more tend to meander into the middle of the basin - and very few appear to make a landfall. Thought it was worth flagging this up: I would like to potentially look for a solution here.