rburghol
commented
3 years ago - Expanded model domain for current and climate change simulations. Priorities in order:
- SOVA 2005-2014
- Expand CC beyond 2000
- All 2014-near current
- All Forecast over next 90 days
- Possible expanded historical time series, inclusion of droughts from 1960s
- Potential to expand the GCM (climate) models to 2002 and beyond
- Just in time climate model inputs for use in drought forecasting and response.
- How well do the model methods of ET (Hargreaves-Samani versus other) represent the changes we have seen over the last 30 years?
- Benefits:
- 30+ year record in southern rivers, consistent time frame across all model domain.
- Climate change scenario in southern rivers.
- By expanding the model domain beyond the current 30 year time period we will have a greater ability to estimate 7Q10, historical drought lows, and expand our understanding of recent climatic variability.
- Near Real-time drought response simulation abilities
- The end period of our simulation will expand every year to include the prior year (could even be month to month)
- Detailed Objectives
- Identify meteorological input data sources in use by CBP and ICPRB
- Historical
- Short-term Forecast
- Climate Change
- Disagregation of rainfall and temperature from mean daily averages or Min/Max?
- Identify methods in use to produce ET estimates from temperature data
- Hargreaves-Samani / Haman
- QA Processes
- long term data summaries: based initially on model summary routines for Land river segments
- Compare evaporation rates over time
- Evaluate difference between Hammon and Hargreaves-Samani ET in calibration dataset
- Generate timeseries files (csv/tab-delimited) for
- Generate WDMs from timeseries files
- Identify data sources and generate time series inputs for southern rivers
- If data sources for southern rivers are identical to existing bay model methods:
- acquire data
- apply methods, and
- generate expanded southern rivers time-series to match current bay model rules.
- If data sources differ and are not identical to existing bay model methods, review, recommend and advise on feasibility of generating.
- Identify data sources and potential differences in method for generating CC data beyond 2000
- Evaluate methods in use by ICPRB to generate short term forecast.
- Northern Rivers
- Southern Rivers
durelles