Small Farm Irrigation Coefficients

Task: Develop county-level coefficients of small farm (estimated to be under reporting threshold) unreported irrigation withdrawals. @laljeet @jdkleiner @rburghol

Action items:
- [x] Table with coefficients of small farm unreported as percentage of reported irrigation withdrawals in counties with usda and vdeq irrigation data for each county c and usda year y: C_irr_c,y = W_{unr_sm} / W_{rep_irr}
- [x] Table with coefficients of small farm unreported as percentage of reported withdrawals (all use types) in all counties with usda data for each county c and usda year y: C_tot_c,y = W_{unr_sm} / W_{rep_tot}
- [x] Map of C_irr
- [x] Map of C_tot
- [x] Trend analysis: Mann Kendall won't work with four data points, but we could do a quick test to see if the four values are a monotonic increase or decrease, and identify the locations where this is the case.

C_irr_c,y and C_tot_c,y coefficients would be same in either case because of how we convert the "under threshold" acres from census data to million gallons. Multiplying C-tot with total withdrawals in a county a would give a large unreported withdrawal amounts.

e.g. GILES has C_irr_c,y or C_tot_c,y of 0.22 Using DEQ irrigation withdrawals, the Unreported withdrawal is 43 mgd Using total withdrawals, the Unreported withdrawal is 132 mgd

Possible solutions:

For counties with DEQ data continue using C_irr

For counties missing DEQ data

Use Survey irrigation depth (limitation that the irrigation depth is for following year)
Use effective rainfall method to calculate the expected irrigation for the counties.

Here is the detailed calculation of C_irr and C_total:

Capture

I think the issue is in the third line of your equations - in the formulation you have there, "total withdrawals in a county" should refer to irrigation withdrawals but not total withdrawals. When we have DEQ irrigation withdrawals, it's reasonable to assume that the UT (under threshold) percent is the same for both acreage and gallons. IE, if 20% of the irrigated acreage in a county is under the reporting threshold, then we assume 20% of the irrigation volume also is under the reported threshold. However, there's no reason to assume that the UT percent would also refer to non-irrigation withdrawals.

We can talk through the equations tomorrow, but in general I think the best approach in counties with no VDEQ irrigation withdrawals is to calculate the irrigated acreage below threshold, and then apply a depth to those acres using the rainfall deficit approach.

C_irr c,y = Acres under threshold c,y / Total Irrigated acres c,y

2002

County | County_Code | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | C_irr -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 1 | 9716 | 17 | 3444.534 | 0 AMELIA | 7 | 886 | 109 | 42.093 | 0.12 AUGUSTA | 15 | 3416 | 184 | 461.554 | 0.05 CAROLINE | 33 | 2272 | 25 | 960.526 | 0.01 CHARLES CITY | 36 | 1122 | 21 | 268.67 | 0.02 CHESTERFIELD | 41 | 571 | 35 | 55 | 0.06 CLARKE | 43 | 327 | 94 | 42.8 | 0.29 CULPEPER | 47 | 589 | 111 | 4.11 | 0.19 DINWIDDIE | 53 | 1164 | 115 | 14.055 | 0.1 ESSEX | 57 | 246 | 39 | 140.34 | 0.16 FAIRFAX | 59 | 101 | 101 | 14.599 | 1 FRANKLIN | 67 | 1126 | 242 | 11.81 | 0.21 FREDERICK | 69 | 520 | 159 | 9 | 0.31 GREENSVILLE | 81 | 734 | 0 | 50.8297 | 0 HALIFAX | 83 | 2617 | 82 | 26.816 | 0.03 HANOVER | 85 | 2393 | 278 | 236.0457 | 0.12 ISLE OF WIGHT | 93 | 791 | 5 | 97.5 | 0.01 KING AND QUEEN | 97 | 743 | 64 | 256.91 | 0.09 KING WILLIAM | 101 | 2457 | 15 | 143.51 | 0.01 LOUDOUN | 107 | 3666 | 185 | 36.6 | 0.05 LUNENBURG | 111 | 1484 | 61 | 10 | 0.04 MECKLENBURG | 117 | 4158 | 236 | 5.59 | 0.06 MIDDLESEX | 119 | 651 | 16 | 13.4 | 0.02 MONTGOMERY | 121 | 303 | 41 | 17 | 0.14 NELSON | 125 | 795 | 145 | 192.13 | 0.18 NEW KENT | 127 | 458 | 15 | 11.89 | 0.03 NORTHAMPTON | 131 | 9338 | 44 | 742.087 | 0 ORANGE | 137 | 1556 | 53 | 0.45 | 0.03 PAGE | 139 | 238 | 14 | 34.476 | 0.06 PITTSYLVANIA | 143 | 5606 | 211 | 86.068 | 0.04 POWHATAN | 145 | 230 | 32 | 0.58 | 0.14 PRINCE EDWARD | 147 | 526 | 46 | 38.6 | 0.09 PRINCE WILLIAM | 153 | 1173 | 10 | 3.4 | 0.01 ROANOKE | 161 | 92 | 82 | 20.7 | 0.89 ROCKINGHAM | 165 | 4355 | 174 | 276.896 | 0.04 SHENANDOAH | 171 | 1110 | 36 | 30.277 | 0.03 SOUTHAMPTON | 175 | 2385 | 0 | 41 | 0 SPOTSYLVANIA | 177 | 346 | 40 | 60.56 | 0.12 SURRY | 181 | 1472 | 30 | 53.203 | 0.02 SUSSEX | 183 | 1410 | 16 | 38.6 | 0.01 WESTMORELAND | 193 | 1474 | 122 | 311.381 | 0.08 SUFFOLK CITY | 800 | 1167 | 109 | 208.64 | 0.09

2007

County | County_Code | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | C_irr -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 1 | 6508 | 49 | 1779.744 | 0.01 AMELIA | 7 | 562 | 38 | 15.681 | 0.07 AUGUSTA | 15 | 3813 | 195 | 592.1592 | 0.05 BEDFORD | 19 | 567 | 41 | 11.9226 | 0.07 CAMPBELL | 31 | 779 | 107 | 59.51 | 0.14 CAROLINE | 33 | 2112 | 79 | 541.364 | 0.04 CHARLES CITY | 36 | 739 | 12 | 11.9 | 0.02 CHARLOTTE | 37 | 731 | 136 | 23.2 | 0.19 CHESTERFIELD | 41 | 185 | 46 | 37.9 | 0.25 CLARKE | 43 | 514 | 60 | 44 | 0.12 CULPEPER | 47 | 1266 | 67 | 410.727 | 0.05 DINWIDDIE | 53 | 1885 | 25 | 97.3087 | 0.01 FAIRFAX | 59 | 40 | 40 | 17.4 | 1 FREDERICK | 69 | 298 | 101 | 13.534 | 0.34 HALIFAX | 83 | 1549 | 123 | 9.12 | 0.08 HANOVER | 85 | 3188 | 116 | 274.1886 | 0.04 ISLE OF WIGHT | 93 | 702 | 44 | 123 | 0.06 KING AND QUEEN | 97 | 16 | 16 | 293.42 | 1 KING GEORGE | 99 | 672 | 21 | 175.802 | 0.03 KING WILLIAM | 101 | 2690 | 0 | 702.694 | 0 LOUDOUN | 107 | 3533 | 142 | 32.6308 | 0.04 LUNENBURG | 111 | 770 | 35 | 8.66 | 0.05 MECKLENBURG | 117 | 3235 | 60 | 7.17 | 0.02 MIDDLESEX | 119 | 480 | 0 | 90.576 | 0 MONTGOMERY | 121 | 384 | 38 | 46.54 | 0.1 NELSON | 125 | 774 | 97 | 468.463 | 0.13 NEW KENT | 127 | 495 | 7 | 138.01 | 0.01 NORTHAMPTON | 131 | 9286 | 48 | 907.2193 | 0.01 ORANGE | 137 | 627 | 39 | 70 | 0.06 PAGE | 139 | 296 | 47 | 12.17 | 0.16 PATRICK | 141 | 432 | 22 | 1 | 0.05 PITTSYLVANIA | 143 | 4187 | 64 | 65.3438 | 0.02 POWHATAN | 145 | 28 | 2 | 3.3 | 0.07 PRINCE WILLIAM | 153 | 685 | 89 | 2.632 | 0.13 ROCKINGHAM | 165 | 4808 | 241 | 167.963 | 0.05 SHENANDOAH | 171 | 755 | 125 | 29.928 | 0.17 SOUTHAMPTON | 175 | 3507 | 90 | 259.1787 | 0.03 SPOTSYLVANIA | 177 | 144 | 79 | 25.43 | 0.55 SURRY | 181 | 1028 | 22 | 39.699 | 0.02 SUSSEX | 183 | 1645 | 0 | 41.22 | 0 WESTMORELAND | 193 | 1673 | 5 | 863.926 | 0 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 550 | 239 | 56 | 1.440575 | 0.23 SUFFOLK CITY | 800 | 616 | 68 | 180.6075 | 0.11

2012

County | County_Code | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | C_irr -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 1 | 5371 | 54 | 3414.518 | 0.01 AMELIA | 7 | 374 | 45 | 85.5 | 0.12 AUGUSTA | 15 | 3271 | 87 | 424.6243 | 0.03 BEDFORD | 19 | 93 | 54 | 11.55 | 0.58 CAMPBELL | 31 | 290 | 98 | 57.88 | 0.34 CAROLINE | 33 | 1959 | 25 | 792.39 | 0.01 CHARLES CITY | 36 | 1435 | 11 | 405.611 | 0.01 CHARLOTTE | 37 | 759 | 85 | 15.3 | 0.11 CHESTERFIELD | 41 | 64 | 12 | 22.9 | 0.19 CLARKE | 43 | 249 | 28 | 46.58 | 0.11 CULPEPER | 47 | 641 | 64 | 93.1449 | 0.1 DINWIDDIE | 53 | 1162 | 53 | 17.00596 | 0.05 FLOYD | 63 | 192 | 133 | 21.1 | 0.69 GREENSVILLE | 81 | 246 | 9 | 32.252 | 0.04 HALIFAX | 83 | 2152 | 223 | 2.139 | 0.1 HANOVER | 85 | 3338 | 247 | 560.29 | 0.07 HENRICO | 87 | 7 | 7 | 100.69 | 1 ISLE OF WIGHT | 93 | 702 | 13 | 5.75 | 0.02 KING AND QUEEN | 97 | 18 | 18 | 246.17 | 1 KING GEORGE | 99 | 350 | 34 | 216.35 | 0.1 KING WILLIAM | 101 | 1125 | 16 | 352.326 | 0.01 LOUDOUN | 107 | 580 | 235 | 0.4321 | 0.41 LUNENBURG | 111 | 444 | 33 | 6.76 | 0.07 MIDDLESEX | 119 | 477 | 18 | 88.8 | 0.04 MONTGOMERY | 121 | 349 | 37 | 65.645 | 0.11 NELSON | 125 | 862 | 57 | 424.98 | 0.07 NORTHAMPTON | 131 | 6335 | 47 | 881.646 | 0.01 ORANGE | 137 | 563 | 51 | 11 | 0.09 PAGE | 139 | 1005 | 19 | 51.94 | 0.02 PITTSYLVANIA | 143 | 3717 | 184 | 27.14079 | 0.05 POWHATAN | 145 | 99 | 20 | 4 | 0.2 PRINCE EDWARD | 147 | 96 | 11 | 0.05148 | 0.11 PRINCE WILLIAM | 153 | 1006 | 69 | 47.42 | 0.07 ROCKINGHAM | 165 | 5645 | 350 | 578.196 | 0.06 SHENANDOAH | 171 | 719 | 111 | 31.96 | 0.15 SOUTHAMPTON | 175 | 3246 | 28 | 159.7402 | 0.01 SPOTSYLVANIA | 177 | 58 | 29 | 10.2 | 0.5 SURRY | 181 | 1238 | 65 | 22.35 | 0.05 SUSSEX | 183 | 1371 | 25 | 71.71 | 0.02 WESTMORELAND | 193 | 1642 | 2 | 380.14 | 0 SUFFOLK CITY | 800 | 414 | 62 | 133.01 | 0.15

2017

County | County_Code | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | C_irr -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 1 | 5079 | 58 | 1673.848 | 0.01 AMELIA | 7 | 205 | 19 | 9.343 | 0.09 AUGUSTA | 15 | 2550 | 199 | 175.66 | 0.08 BEDFORD | 19 | 51 | 51 | 16.15 | 1 CAMPBELL | 31 | 313 | 40 | 121.59 | 0.13 CAROLINE | 33 | 3411 | 19 | 543.92 | 0.01 CHARLES CITY | 36 | 1376 | 15 | 344.0851 | 0.01 CHARLOTTE | 37 | 534 | 94 | 15.35 | 0.18 CLARKE | 43 | 143 | 34 | 16.56 | 0.24 CULPEPER | 47 | 615 | 167 | 81.2651 | 0.27 DINWIDDIE | 53 | 1578 | 27 | 31.129 | 0.02 ESSEX | 57 | 3 | 3 | 340.34 | 1 FLOYD | 63 | 182 | 122 | 31.672 | 0.67 GREENSVILLE | 81 | 5 | 5 | 48.91836 | 1 HANOVER | 85 | 3569 | 179 | 583.8264 | 0.05 HENRICO | 87 | 28 | 28 | 97.14 | 1 ISLE OF WIGHT | 93 | 934 | 37 | 71.1 | 0.04 KING AND QUEEN | 97 | 1221 | 37 | 418.6888 | 0.03 KING WILLIAM | 101 | 1618 | 17 | 285.391 | 0.01 MIDDLESEX | 119 | 270 | 26 | 22.39 | 0.1 MONTGOMERY | 121 | 323 | 36 | 42.2739 | 0.11 NELSON | 125 | 1016 | 66 | 474.32 | 0.06 NEW KENT | 127 | 271 | 18 | 24.19 | 0.07 NORTHAMPTON | 131 | 5857 | 8 | 529.2497 | 0 PAGE | 139 | 108 | 20 | 25.55 | 0.19 POWHATAN | 145 | 63 | 16 | 4.3 | 0.25 PRINCE WILLIAM | 153 | 943 | 34 | 14.541 | 0.04 ROANOKE | 161 | 71 | 71 | 0.75 | 1 ROCKINGHAM | 165 | 5526 | 282 | 254.245 | 0.05 SHENANDOAH | 171 | 893 | 99 | 36.38 | 0.11 SOUTHAMPTON | 175 | 1624 | 14 | 138.2595 | 0.01 SPOTSYLVANIA | 177 | 96 | 27 | 0.146 | 0.28 SURRY | 181 | 929 | 10 | 43.719 | 0.01 SUSSEX | 183 | 699 | 15 | 195.364 | 0.02 WESTMORELAND | 193 | 882 | 111 | 321.7426 | 0.13 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 550 | 72 | 57 | 0.896212 | 0.79 SUFFOLK CITY | 800 | 585 | 60 | 111.95 | 0.1

For counties without DEQ withdrawals:

C_tot c,y = Volume of Irrigation c,y / Total DEQ withdrawals c,y
Volume of Irrigation c,y = (Acres unreported * Irrigation) Irrigation(inches) = (30 – Precipitation)

2002

County | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | PPT | Irrigation | Vol_Unreported | C_tot -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 9716 | 17 | 5389.55086 | 590.39 | 172 | 3.11 | 0 ALBEMARLE | 1387 | 120 | 3908.210335 | 618.8 | 143 | 18.27 | 0 ALLEGHANY | 191 | 11 | 21938.65572 | 624.98 | 137 | 1.6 | 0 AMELIA | 886 | 109 | 42.093 | 521.54 | 240 | 27.86 | 0.66 AMHERST | 144 | 36 | 5863 | 572.1 | 190 | 7.28 | 0 APPOMATTOX | 508 | 19 | 87.302 | 559.43 | 203 | 4.11 | 0.05 AUGUSTA | 3416 | 184 | 4341.0051 | 550.03 | 212 | 41.54 | 0.01 BATH | 109 | 0 | 4118.789482 | 620.65 | 141 | 0 | 0 BEDFORD | 676 | 159 | 4864.389855 | 603.95 | 158 | 26.75 | 0.01 BLAND | 135 | 21 | 72.718 | 638.86 | 123 | 2.75 | 0.04 BOTETOURT | 253 | 77 | 2906.553869 | 592.4 | 170 | 13.94 | 0 BRUNSWICK | 1474 | 126 | 731.753 | 626.09 | 136 | 18.25 | 0.02 BUCKINGHAM | 469 | 16 | 459.12 | 537.66 | 224 | 3.82 | 0.01 CAMPBELL | 1328 | 130 | 2215.3349 | 600.31 | 162 | 22.43 | 0.01 CAROLINE | 2272 | 25 | 2657.6773 | 547.01 | 215 | 5.72 | 0 CARROLL | 785 | 60 | 168.574 | 617.35 | 145 | 9.26 | 0.05 CHARLES CITY | 1122 | 21 | 291.196 | 534.07 | 228 | 5.1 | 0.02 CHARLOTTE | 1454 | 202 | 116.545 | 671.38 | 91 | 19.57 | 0.17 CHESTERFIELD | 571 | 35 | 32908.70612 | 517.94 | 244 | 9.09 | 0 CLARKE | 327 | 94 | 259.376083 | 670.68 | 91 | 9.11 | 0.04 CRAIG | 130 | 30 | 862.29 | 642.46 | 120 | 3.83 | 0 CULPEPER | 589 | 111 | 598.094 | 559.55 | 202 | 23.88 | 0.04 CUMBERLAND | 222 | 27 | 2.622 | 533.07 | 229 | 6.58 | 2.51 DINWIDDIE | 1164 | 115 | 102.639 | 620.38 | 142 | 17.39 | 0.17 ESSEX | 246 | 39 | 295.8453 | 565.75 | 196 | 8.14 | 0.03 FAIRFAX | 101 | 101 | 31715.8939 | 566.39 | 196 | 21.08 | 0 FAUQUIER | 862 | 202 | 917.868 | 610.4 | 152 | 32.7 | 0.04 FLOYD | 779 | 196 | 59.2953 | 553.55 | 208 | 43.41 | 0.73 FLUVANNA | 57 | 24 | 264.928204 | 591.98 | 170 | 4.34 | 0.02 FRANKLIN | 1126 | 242 | 414.587 | 634.41 | 128 | 32.99 | 0.08 FREDERICK | 520 | 159 | 672.497 | 691.32 | 71 | 12.02 | 0.02 GILES | 193 | 28 | 24886.2384 | 640.34 | 122 | 3.64 | 0 GLOUCESTER | 98 | 51 | 445.9206 | 614.63 | 147 | 7.98 | 0.02 GOOCHLAND | 101 | 23 | 695.2937 | 569.18 | 193 | 4.73 | 0.01 GRAYSON | 619 | 77 | 67.504 | 638.42 | 124 | 10.17 | 0.15 GREENE | 36 | 36 | 201.205732 | 642.09 | 120 | 4.6 | 0.02 GREENSVILLE | 734 | 0 | 647.5772 | 614.14 | 148 | 0 | 0 HALIFAX | 2617 | 82 | 772.2776 | 631.56 | 130 | 11.35 | 0.01 HANOVER | 2393 | 278 | 5914.3517 | 530.95 | 231 | 68.38 | 0.01 HENRICO | 49 | 49 | 677.181536 | 562.04 | 200 | 10.44 | 0.02 HENRY | 416 | 39 | 1815.299008 | 631.9 | 130 | 5.4 | 0 ISLE OF WIGHT | 791 | 5 | 16964.96468 | 650.36 | 112 | 0.6 | 0 JAMES CITY | 102 | 12 | 5502.30478 | 563.49 | 199 | 2.54 | 0 KING AND QUEEN | 743 | 64 | 261.51 | 570.35 | 192 | 13.09 | 0.05 KING GEORGE | 3 | 3 | 761.1532 | 528.79 | 233 | 0.74 | 0 KING WILLIAM | 2457 | 15 | 7514.2431 | 532.84 | 229 | 3.66 | 0 LEE | 1374 | 204 | 597.42 | 612.89 | 149 | 32.37 | 0.05 LOUDOUN | 3666 | 185 | 2154.691 | 637.32 | 125 | 24.62 | 0.01 LOUISA | 365 | 51 | 199.934 | 620.98 | 141 | 7.66 | 0.04 LUNENBURG | 1484 | 61 | 231.424 | 672.19 | 90 | 5.85 | 0.03 MADISON | 333 | 72 | 39.538 | 621.72 | 140 | 10.73 | 0.27 MATHEWS | 117 | 5 | 1.113 | 652.68 | 109 | 0.58 | 0.52 MECKLENBURG | 4158 | 236 | 1132.005 | 610.36 | 152 | 38.2 | 0.03 MIDDLESEX | 651 | 16 | 117.3 | 621.79 | 140 | 2.39 | 0.02 MONTGOMERY | 303 | 41 | 8396.0889 | 561.49 | 201 | 8.78 | 0 NELSON | 795 | 145 | 593.2255 | 614.15 | 148 | 22.85 | 0.04 NEW KENT | 458 | 15 | 14967.40878 | 544.5 | 218 | 3.48 | 0 NORTHAMPTON | 9338 | 44 | 997.0889 | 615.94 | 146 | 6.84 | 0.01 NORTHUMBERLAND | 38 | 10 | 73.9144 | 580.23 | 182 | 1.94 | 0.03 NOTTOWAY | 457 | 32 | 214.159 | 571.71 | 190 | 6.47 | 0.03 ORANGE | 1556 | 53 | 569.231 | 576.79 | 185 | 10.44 | 0.02 PAGE | 238 | 14 | 876.3444 | 640.63 | 121 | 1.8 | 0 PATRICK | 325 | 134 | 241.6111 | 605.88 | 156 | 22.26 | 0.09 PITTSYLVANIA | 5606 | 211 | 1800.3949 | 617.82 | 144 | 32.35 | 0.02 POWHATAN | 230 | 32 | 32.6476 | 564.26 | 198 | 6.75 | 0.21 PRINCE EDWARD | 526 | 46 | 408.714 | 527.16 | 235 | 11.51 | 0.03 PRINCE WILLIAM | 1173 | 10 | 21593.872 | 584.32 | 178 | 1.9 | 0 PULASKI | 320 | 3 | 1760.111 | 577.87 | 184 | 0.59 | 0 RAPPAHANNOCK | 335 | 10 | 14.576 | 626.16 | 136 | 1.45 | 0.1 ROANOKE | 92 | 82 | 7430.9603 | 610.41 | 152 | 13.27 | 0 ROCKBRIDGE | 700 | 55 | 1333.348511 | 560.82 | 201 | 11.77 | 0.01 ROCKINGHAM | 4355 | 174 | 8784.345484 | 599.61 | 162 | 30.02 | 0 RUSSELL | 251 | 118 | 1644.2773 | 681.2 | 81 | 10.18 | 0.01 SCOTT | 637 | 180 | 380.623 | 634.17 | 128 | 24.53 | 0.06 SHENANDOAH | 1110 | 36 | 1967.5901 | 682.09 | 80 | 3.07 | 0 SMYTH | 452 | 38 | 2503.458 | 691.43 | 71 | 2.87 | 0 SOUTHAMPTON | 2385 | 0 | 6068.35342 | 688.41 | 74 | 0 | 0 SPOTSYLVANIA | 346 | 40 | 3729.491 | 527.05 | 235 | 10.01 | 0 STAFFORD | 186 | 22 | 3516.87 | 546.65 | 215 | 5.04 | 0 SURRY | 1472 | 30 | 136.30141 | 640.18 | 122 | 3.9 | 0.03 SUSSEX | 1410 | 16 | 397.3285 | 704.91 | 57 | 0.97 | 0 TAZEWELL | 245 | 29 | 1763.684 | 647.91 | 114 | 3.52 | 0 WARREN | 151 | 70 | 3691.9461 | 676.93 | 85 | 6.34 | 0 WASHINGTON | 836 | 155 | 3081.793 | 732.74 | 29 | 4.79 | 0 WESTMORELAND | 1474 | 122 | 663.730732 | 581.08 | 181 | 23.51 | 0.04 WISE | 28 | 10 | 2350.4953 | 679.66 | 82 | 0.87 | 0 WYTHE | 1061 | 22 | 1596.5893 | 612.32 | 150 | 3.51 | 0 YORK | 41 | 41 | 31129.51068 | 566.96 | 195 | 8.51 | 0 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 314 | 189 | 1681.9399 | 723.58 | 38 | 7.65 | 0 SUFFOLK CITY | 1167 | 109 | 35591.81728 | 639.65 | 122 | 14.16 | 0 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 431 | 35 | 10522.48339 | 704.96 | 57 | 2.12 | 0

2007

County | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | PPT | Irrigation | Vol_Unreported | C_tot -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 6508 | 49 | 3324.218 | 500.84 | 261 | 13.62 | 0 ALBEMARLE | 1026 | 70 | 3966.777 | 557.78 | 204 | 15.21 | 0 AMELIA | 562 | 38 | 15.681 | 513.37 | 249 | 10.08 | 0.64 AMHERST | 147 | 27 | 5940.585 | 488.48 | 274 | 7.88 | 0 APPOMATTOX | 43 | 43 | 97.49015 | 518.25 | 244 | 11.17 | 0.11 AUGUSTA | 3813 | 195 | 4114.818 | 539.74 | 222 | 46.1 | 0.01 BATH | 7 | 7 | 4446.422 | 520.42 | 242 | 1.8 | 0 BEDFORD | 567 | 41 | 6611.068 | 477.33 | 285 | 12.44 | 0 BLAND | 10 | 10 | 57.531 | 479.97 | 282 | 3 | 0.05 BOTETOURT | 63 | 25 | 659.3764 | 467.02 | 295 | 7.85 | 0.01 BRUNSWICK | 1316 | 26 | 931.0598 | 447.85 | 314 | 8.69 | 0.01 BUCKINGHAM | 39 | 26 | 161.2807 | 523.56 | 238 | 6.59 | 0.04 CAMPBELL | 779 | 107 | 2235.982 | 506.56 | 255 | 29.05 | 0.01 CAROLINE | 2112 | 79 | 2399.617 | 435.93 | 326 | 27.42 | 0.01 CARROLL | 600 | 31 | 163.0234 | 495.17 | 267 | 8.81 | 0.05 CHARLES CITY | 739 | 12 | 45.21013 | 592.14 | 170 | 2.17 | 0.05 CHARLOTTE | 731 | 136 | 119.473 | 500.17 | 262 | 37.94 | 0.32 CHESTERFIELD | 185 | 46 | 33392.74 | 525.1 | 237 | 11.61 | 0 CLARKE | 514 | 60 | 258.6409 | 460.73 | 301 | 19.23 | 0.07 CRAIG | 6 | 6 | 32.0455 | 495.58 | 266 | 1.7 | 0.05 CULPEPER | 1266 | 67 | 1255.776 | 451.15 | 311 | 22.19 | 0.02 DINWIDDIE | 1885 | 25 | 156.3327 | 539.53 | 222 | 5.91 | 0.04 FAIRFAX | 40 | 40 | 34091.97 | 400.92 | 361 | 15.38 | 0 FAUQUIER | 920 | 160 | 1254.396 | 446.42 | 316 | 53.84 | 0.04 FLOYD | 108 | 108 | 22.396 | 451.88 | 310 | 35.65 | 1.59 FLUVANNA | 264 | 30 | 346.6548 | 530.21 | 232 | 7.41 | 0.02 FRANKLIN | 872 | 140 | 492.8103 | 474.21 | 288 | 42.94 | 0.09 FREDERICK | 298 | 101 | 2243.942 | 475.26 | 287 | 30.87 | 0.01 GILES | 30 | 13 | 22192.28 | 480.59 | 281 | 3.89 | 0 GLOUCESTER | 58 | 58 | 507.5373 | 538.68 | 223 | 13.77 | 0.03 GOOCHLAND | 20 | 20 | 949.7262 | 512.68 | 249 | 5.3 | 0.01 GRAYSON | 97 | 37 | 50.13227 | 499.8 | 262 | 10.32 | 0.21 GREENE | 154 | 47 | 248.5711 | 556.51 | 205 | 10.26 | 0.04 HALIFAX | 1549 | 123 | 698.4145 | 467.77 | 294 | 38.51 | 0.06 HANOVER | 3188 | 116 | 1033.165 | 502.63 | 259 | 31.99 | 0.03 HENRICO | 25 | 25 | 11258.71 | 554.78 | 207 | 5.51 | 0 HENRY | 525 | 6 | 1111.624 | 497.37 | 265 | 1.69 | 0 ISLE OF WIGHT | 702 | 44 | 15366.27 | 514.08 | 248 | 11.62 | 0 JAMES CITY | 29 | 16 | 5613.277 | 568.54 | 193 | 3.29 | 0 KING AND QUEEN | 16 | 16 | 298.32 | 494.21 | 268 | 4.57 | 0.02 KING GEORGE | 672 | 21 | 1242.08 | 413.82 | 348 | 7.78 | 0.01 KING WILLIAM | 2690 | 0 | 7165.262 | 487.08 | 275 | 0 | 0 LEE | 297 | 43 | 766.738 | 488.68 | 273 | 12.5 | 0.02 LOUDOUN | 3533 | 142 | 2538.797 | 416.87 | 345 | 52.17 | 0.02 LOUISA | 279 | 54 | 196.0423 | 503.44 | 259 | 14.89 | 0.08 LUNENBURG | 770 | 35 | 216.203 | 469.82 | 292 | 10.88 | 0.05 MADISON | 69 | 39 | 105.548 | 534.38 | 228 | 9.47 | 0.09 MATHEWS | 53 | 19 | 5.9702 | 524.13 | 238 | 4.82 | 0.81 MECKLENBURG | 3235 | 60 | 713.222 | 422.02 | 340 | 21.72 | 0.03 MIDDLESEX | 480 | 0 | 160.2157 | 515.77 | 246 | 0 | 0 MONTGOMERY | 384 | 38 | 8688.828 | 421.31 | 341 | 13.8 | 0 NELSON | 774 | 97 | 1060.21 | 536.6 | 225 | 23.24 | 0.02 NEW KENT | 495 | 7 | 10425.08 | 554.77 | 207 | 1.54 | 0 NORTHAMPTON | 9286 | 48 | 1183.686 | 506.03 | 256 | 13.09 | 0.01 NORTHUMBERLAND | 62 | 1 | 987.2377 | 463.76 | 298 | 0.32 | 0 NOTTOWAY | 386 | 32 | 464.5778 | 521.51 | 240 | 8.18 | 0.02 ORANGE | 627 | 39 | 719.1761 | 485.71 | 276 | 11.46 | 0.02 PAGE | 296 | 47 | 605.7942 | 561.4 | 201 | 10.06 | 0.02 PATRICK | 432 | 22 | 285.8151 | 566.11 | 196 | 4.59 | 0.02 PITTSYLVANIA | 4187 | 64 | 1073.054 | 457.89 | 304 | 20.72 | 0.02 POWHATAN | 28 | 2 | 50.1273 | 477.33 | 285 | 0.61 | 0.01 PRINCE EDWARD | 123 | 60 | 30.88316 | 485.45 | 277 | 17.7 | 0.57 PRINCE GEORGE | 6 | 6 | 255.9439 | 561.35 | 201 | 1.28 | 0.01 PRINCE WILLIAM | 685 | 89 | 28178.82 | 409.63 | 352 | 33.36 | 0 PULASKI | 241 | 23 | 1780.94 | 438.12 | 324 | 7.94 | 0 RAPPAHANNOCK | 132 | 56 | 14.271 | 505.34 | 257 | 15.33 | 1.07 RICHMOND | 243 | 2 | 113.7787 | 444.8 | 317 | 0.68 | 0.01 ROANOKE | 94 | 53 | 4487.925 | 480.21 | 282 | 15.92 | 0 ROCKBRIDGE | 109 | 46 | 1052.877 | 547.77 | 214 | 10.48 | 0.01 ROCKINGHAM | 4808 | 241 | 9031.399 | 598.69 | 163 | 41.83 | 0 RUSSELL | 134 | 28 | 644.7502 | 571.25 | 191 | 5.69 | 0.01 SCOTT | 243 | 84 | 397.3463 | 494.93 | 267 | 23.88 | 0.06 SHENANDOAH | 755 | 125 | 2007.441 | 535.87 | 226 | 30.08 | 0.01 SMYTH | 188 | 66 | 1719.006 | 485.98 | 276 | 19.4 | 0.01 SOUTHAMPTON | 3507 | 90 | 5903.591 | 512 | 250 | 23.96 | 0 SPOTSYLVANIA | 144 | 79 | 4155.782 | 451.3 | 311 | 26.16 | 0.01 STAFFORD | 221 | 11 | 4652.618 | 456.94 | 305 | 3.57 | 0 SURRY | 1028 | 22 | 103.262 | 579.76 | 182 | 4.26 | 0.04 SUSSEX | 1645 | 0 | 588.938 | 541.49 | 221 | 0 | 0 TAZEWELL | 330 | 29 | 1247.325 | 534.23 | 228 | 7.04 | 0.01 WARREN | 58 | 58 | 4304.443 | 481.47 | 281 | 17.36 | 0 WASHINGTON | 410 | 123 | 3408.196 | 531.8 | 230 | 30.12 | 0.01 WESTMORELAND | 1673 | 5 | 1235.924 | 394.71 | 367 | 1.95 | 0 WISE | 115 | 5 | 1773.069 | 569.56 | 192 | 1.02 | 0 WYTHE | 164 | 55 | 3002.442 | 419.3 | 343 | 20.09 | 0.01 YORK | 17 | 17 | 32214.19 | 561.86 | 200 | 3.62 | 0 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 239 | 56 | 4509.785 | 489.99 | 272 | 16.22 | 0 SUFFOLK CITY | 616 | 68 | 38298.19 | 541.07 | 221 | 16 | 0 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 193 | 51 | 13960.18 | 442.99 | 319 | 17.32 | 0

2012

County | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | PPT | Irrigation | Vol_Unreported | C_tot -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 5371 | 54 | 4613.682 | 632.31 | 130 | 7.48 | 0 ALBEMARLE | 1456 | 168 | 3716.215 | 644.28 | 118 | 21.11 | 0.01 ALLEGHANY | 8 | 8 | 14351.13 | 609.36 | 153 | 1.3 | 0 AMELIA | 374 | 45 | 117.781 | 514.16 | 248 | 11.88 | 0.1 APPOMATTOX | 105 | 81 | 42.3 | 543.42 | 219 | 18.89 | 0.45 AUGUSTA | 3271 | 87 | 4038.266 | 645.82 | 116 | 10.75 | 0 BATH | 19 | 19 | 3818.33 | 607.05 | 155 | 3.14 | 0 BEDFORD | 93 | 54 | 6562.061 | 541.56 | 220 | 12.65 | 0 BOTETOURT | 52 | 25 | 621.3561 | 620.79 | 141 | 3.75 | 0.01 BRUNSWICK | 1280 | 40 | 361.7987 | 707.79 | 54 | 2.3 | 0.01 BUCKINGHAM | 16 | 16 | 125.099 | 563.72 | 198 | 3.37 | 0.03 CAMPBELL | 290 | 98 | 1786.791 | 533.15 | 229 | 23.9 | 0.01 CAROLINE | 1959 | 25 | 2654.551 | 538.57 | 223 | 5.94 | 0 CARROLL | 1086 | 19 | 190.4055 | 645.46 | 117 | 2.37 | 0.01 CHARLES CITY | 1435 | 11 | 428.0656 | 661.99 | 100 | 1.17 | 0 CHARLOTTE | 759 | 85 | 82.747 | 566.97 | 195 | 17.65 | 0.21 CHESTERFIELD | 64 | 12 | 32729.12 | 590.77 | 171 | 2.19 | 0 CLARKE | 249 | 28 | 252.6576 | 595.18 | 167 | 4.98 | 0.02 CRAIG | 10 | 10 | 895.4523 | 567.43 | 195 | 2.08 | 0 CULPEPER | 641 | 64 | 998.4472 | 670.89 | 91 | 6.2 | 0.01 CUMBERLAND | 18 | 18 | 2.3137 | 558.09 | 204 | 3.91 | 1.69 DICKENSON | 12 | 12 | 2145.649 | 678.39 | 84 | 1.07 | 0 DINWIDDIE | 1162 | 53 | 52.41692 | 587.33 | 175 | 9.88 | 0.19 FAIRFAX | 50 | 50 | 32000.1 | 510.42 | 252 | 13.42 | 0 FAUQUIER | 394 | 207 | 1089.439 | 687.56 | 74 | 16.31 | 0.01 FLOYD | 192 | 133 | 34.472 | 581.25 | 181 | 25.63 | 0.74 FLUVANNA | 144 | 61 | 326.771 | 617.1 | 145 | 9.42 | 0.03 FREDERICK | 151 | 79 | 1624.9 | 599.77 | 162 | 13.63 | 0.01 GILES | 32 | 32 | 24019.44 | 558.04 | 204 | 6.95 | 0 GLOUCESTER | 46 | 46 | 475.7657 | 575.49 | 187 | 9.16 | 0.02 GOOCHLAND | 32 | 32 | 801.5221 | 609.96 | 152 | 5.18 | 0.01 GRAYSON | 45 | 45 | 36.6599 | 633.3 | 129 | 6.18 | 0.17 GREENE | 49 | 38 | 228.9864 | 687.62 | 74 | 2.99 | 0.01 GREENSVILLE | 246 | 9 | 743.8175 | 748.38 | 14 | 0.13 | 0 HALIFAX | 2152 | 223 | 675.589 | 591.38 | 171 | 40.61 | 0.06 HANOVER | 3338 | 247 | 1177.759 | 569.68 | 192 | 50.5 | 0.04 HENRICO | 7 | 7 | 9648.405 | 611.66 | 150 | 1.12 | 0 HENRY | 137 | 40 | 1209.686 | 639.79 | 122 | 5.2 | 0 HIGHLAND | 20 | 9 | 2577.252 | 625.07 | 137 | 1.31 | 0 ISLE OF WIGHT | 702 | 13 | 4499.247 | 781.34 | -19 | -0.26 | 0 JAMES CITY | 37 | 15 | 2230.916 | 675.2 | 87 | 1.39 | 0 KING AND QUEEN | 18 | 18 | 250.445 | 548.93 | 213 | 4.08 | 0.02 KING GEORGE | 350 | 34 | 636.7857 | 490.13 | 272 | 9.85 | 0.02 KING WILLIAM | 1125 | 16 | 7903.223 | 557.05 | 205 | 3.49 | 0 LEE | 61 | 61 | 800.624 | 659.72 | 102 | 6.63 | 0.01 LOUDOUN | 580 | 235 | 2337.318 | 619.47 | 143 | 35.78 | 0.02 LOUISA | 278 | 88 | 217.1385 | 651.05 | 111 | 10.4 | 0.05 LUNENBURG | 444 | 33 | 170.069 | 650.8 | 111 | 3.9 | 0.02 MADISON | 70 | 30 | 49.5564 | 729.54 | 32 | 1.02 | 0.02 MATHEWS | 17 | 17 | 7.8853 | 584.54 | 177 | 3.2 | 0.41 MECKLENBURG | 2760 | 66 | 585.5844 | 754.24 | 8 | 0.56 | 0 MIDDLESEX | 477 | 18 | 144.406 | 551.98 | 210 | 4.03 | 0.03 MONTGOMERY | 349 | 37 | 10645.25 | 514.26 | 248 | 9.77 | 0 NELSON | 862 | 57 | 1032.9 | 608.89 | 153 | 9.29 | 0.01 NORTHAMPTON | 6335 | 47 | 1177.015 | 597.22 | 165 | 8.26 | 0.01 NORTHUMBERLAND | 38 | 2 | 135.1638 | 578.11 | 184 | 0.39 | 0 NOTTOWAY | 75 | 55 | 392.96 | 583.26 | 179 | 10.48 | 0.03 ORANGE | 563 | 51 | 641.9746 | 692.79 | 69 | 3.75 | 0.01 PAGE | 1005 | 19 | 646.848 | 584.92 | 177 | 3.58 | 0.01 PATRICK | 108 | 38 | 251.0541 | 709.38 | 53 | 2.14 | 0.01 PITTSYLVANIA | 3717 | 184 | 703.5115 | 600.95 | 161 | 31.55 | 0.04 POWHATAN | 99 | 20 | 40.7775 | 572.11 | 190 | 4.05 | 0.1 PRINCE EDWARD | 96 | 11 | 380.8697 | 548.7 | 213 | 2.49 | 0.01 PRINCE GEORGE | 8 | 8 | 107.5899 | 634.53 | 127 | 1.08 | 0.01 PRINCE WILLIAM | 1006 | 69 | 24517.31 | 610.34 | 152 | 11.17 | 0 PULASKI | 14 | 14 | 1651.929 | 568.02 | 194 | 2.89 | 0 RAPPAHANNOCK | 121 | 95 | 13.24 | 652.05 | 110 | 11.13 | 0.84 RICHMOND | 126 | 21 | 100.346 | 538.06 | 224 | 5.01 | 0.05 ROANOKE | 96 | 53 | 4364.626 | 591.58 | 170 | 9.59 | 0 ROCKBRIDGE | 137 | 59 | 818.7137 | 673.92 | 88 | 5.53 | 0.01 ROCKINGHAM | 5645 | 350 | 9269.704 | 623.14 | 139 | 51.81 | 0.01 RUSSELL | 12 | 12 | 233.732 | 721.29 | 41 | 0.52 | 0 SCOTT | 56 | 23 | 377.6281 | 676 | 86 | 2.11 | 0.01 SHENANDOAH | 719 | 111 | 1984.426 | 636.18 | 126 | 14.89 | 0.01 SMYTH | 18 | 18 | 2090.007 | 649.18 | 113 | 2.17 | 0 SOUTHAMPTON | 3246 | 28 | 1398.276 | 791.2 | -29 | -0.86 | 0 SPOTSYLVANIA | 58 | 29 | 3808.417 | 549.21 | 213 | 6.58 | 0 STAFFORD | 25 | 25 | 3946.842 | 591.17 | 171 | 4.55 | 0 SURRY | 1238 | 65 | 78.11996 | 671.16 | 91 | 6.3 | 0.08 SUSSEX | 1371 | 25 | 456.542 | 652 | 110 | 2.93 | 0.01 TAZEWELL | 18 | 18 | 613.3172 | 705.16 | 57 | 1.09 | 0 WARREN | 12 | 12 | 3510.696 | 590.47 | 172 | 2.2 | 0 WASHINGTON | 224 | 89 | 3633.409 | 690.08 | 72 | 6.82 | 0 WESTMORELAND | 1642 | 2 | 757.3936 | 524.4 | 238 | 0.51 | 0 WISE | 12 | 12 | 2587.331 | 753.31 | 9 | 0.12 | 0 WYTHE | 72 | 52 | 2699.777 | 614.98 | 147 | 8.14 | 0 YORK | 21 | 8 | 8251.782 | 667.58 | 94 | 0.8 | 0 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 282 | 68 | 2422.933 | 727.02 | 35 | 2.53 | 0 SUFFOLK CITY | 414 | 62 | 33496.68 | 809.76 | -48 | -3.17 | 0 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 180 | 44 | 7247.616 | 693.88 | 68 | 3.19 | 0

2017

County | Total.Irri.Area | Irr.Area.Under.TH | Facility_withdrawal_mg | PPT | Irrigation | Vol_Unreported | C_tot -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 5079 | 58 | 3309.035 | 762.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 ALBEMARLE | 783 | 113 | 4644.929 | 693.66 | 68 | 8.18 | 0 AMELIA | 205 | 19 | 59.99334 | 722.81 | 39 | 0.79 | 0.01 AMHERST | 176 | 23 | 6120.39 | 723.11 | 39 | 0.96 | 0 APPOMATTOX | 24 | 24 | 6.5 | 729.19 | 33 | 0.84 | 0.13 AUGUSTA | 2550 | 199 | 3502.974 | 667.19 | 95 | 20.13 | 0.01 BEDFORD | 51 | 51 | 6874.716 | 704.21 | 58 | 3.15 | 0 BLAND | 801 | 4 | 68.0126 | 716.89 | 45 | 0.19 | 0 BOTETOURT | 10 | 10 | 532.3323 | 720.18 | 42 | 0.45 | 0 BRUNSWICK | 2115 | 6 | 588.3132 | 698.93 | 63 | 0.4 | 0 BUCKINGHAM | 65 | 19 | 121.18 | 697.69 | 64 | 1.29 | 0.01 CAMPBELL | 313 | 40 | 2235.733 | 656.74 | 105 | 4.47 | 0 CAROLINE | 3411 | 19 | 1675.266 | 746.74 | 15 | 0.3 | 0 CHARLES CITY | 1376 | 15 | 389.4208 | 731.57 | 30 | 0.48 | 0 CHARLOTTE | 534 | 94 | 97.947 | 719.35 | 43 | 4.3 | 0.04 CHESTERFIELD | 75 | 28 | 36089.35 | 697.96 | 64 | 1.91 | 0 CLARKE | 143 | 34 | 237.3854 | 692.66 | 69 | 2.5 | 0.01 CRAIG | 115 | 19 | 1247.686 | 733.08 | 29 | 0.59 | 0 CULPEPER | 615 | 167 | 1074.751 | 699.43 | 63 | 11.2 | 0.01 CUMBERLAND | 167 | 23 | 5.11825 | 673.55 | 88 | 2.16 | 0.42 DINWIDDIE | 1578 | 27 | 156.4844 | 677.3 | 85 | 2.44 | 0.02 ESSEX | 3 | 3 | 440.2143 | 700.16 | 62 | 0.2 | 0 FAIRFAX | 60 | 60 | 32642.41 | 685.04 | 77 | 4.92 | 0 FAUQUIER | 452 | 217 | 1176.654 | 745.83 | 16 | 3.7 | 0 FLOYD | 182 | 122 | 79.81044 | 757.98 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.01 FLUVANNA | 79 | 18 | 311.7914 | 665.36 | 97 | 1.86 | 0.01 FREDERICK | 38 | 15 | 1937.021 | 694.38 | 68 | 1.09 | 0 GILES | 27 | 27 | 25126.1 | 739.64 | 22 | 0.63 | 0 GLOUCESTER | 13 | 13 | 486.6015 | 698.29 | 64 | 0.89 | 0 GOOCHLAND | 112 | 20 | 732.6279 | 692.97 | 69 | 1.47 | 0 GREENE | 24 | 24 | 229.4875 | 776.84 | -15 | -0.38 | 0 GREENSVILLE | 5 | 5 | 729.4155 | 722.7 | 39 | 0.21 | 0 HALIFAX | 1061 | 52 | 730.0528 | 741.91 | 20 | 1.11 | 0 HANOVER | 3569 | 179 | 1365.922 | 721.9 | 40 | 7.62 | 0.01 HENRICO | 28 | 28 | 9402.481 | 722.35 | 40 | 1.19 | 0 HENRY | 43 | 14 | 1227.356 | 731.91 | 30 | 0.45 | 0 ISLE OF WIGHT | 934 | 37 | 7678.511 | 784.73 | -23 | -0.91 | 0 JAMES CITY | 40 | 27 | 3185.089 | 689.62 | 72 | 2.07 | 0 KING AND QUEEN | 1221 | 37 | 423.2449 | 707.53 | 54 | 2.13 | 0.01 KING WILLIAM | 1618 | 17 | 7126.215 | 697.2 | 65 | 1.18 | 0 LANCASTER | 12 | 12 | 177.5552 | 767.45 | -5 | -0.06 | 0 LEE | 32 | 32 | 870.482 | 788.78 | -27 | -0.92 | 0 LOUDOUN | 392 | 242 | 4344.776 | 726.59 | 35 | 9.02 | 0 LOUISA | 215 | 90 | 264.1097 | 680.16 | 82 | 7.86 | 0.03 LUNENBURG | 1408 | 15 | 189.453 | 712.28 | 50 | 0.8 | 0 MADISON | 80 | 67 | 65.751 | 728.85 | 33 | 2.35 | 0.04 MATHEWS | 10 | 10 | 4.953694 | 697.56 | 64 | 0.68 | 0.14 MECKLENBURG | 4163 | 101 | 717.9267 | 708.26 | 54 | 5.81 | 0.01 MIDDLESEX | 270 | 26 | 92.47545 | 742.2 | 20 | 0.55 | 0.01 MONTGOMERY | 323 | 36 | 9659.75 | 706.04 | 56 | 2.15 | 0 NELSON | 1016 | 66 | 1035.723 | 707.15 | 55 | 3.87 | 0 NEW KENT | 271 | 18 | 6832.186 | 719.9 | 42 | 0.81 | 0 NORTHAMPTON | 5857 | 8 | 883.1606 | 718.58 | 43 | 0.37 | 0 NOTTOWAY | 44 | 44 | 392.2 | 685.01 | 77 | 3.61 | 0.01 ORANGE | 214 | 39 | 638.6902 | 697.28 | 65 | 2.7 | 0 PAGE | 108 | 20 | 658.1734 | 633.55 | 128 | 2.73 | 0 PITTSYLVANIA | 1492 | 78 | 929.0033 | 760.41 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 POWHATAN | 63 | 16 | 69.95639 | 727.74 | 34 | 0.58 | 0.01 PRINCE EDWARD | 14 | 14 | 428.1339 | 684.28 | 78 | 1.16 | 0 PRINCE WILLIAM | 943 | 34 | 25403.48 | 728.82 | 33 | 1.19 | 0 PULASKI | 28 | 28 | 1598.12 | 677.24 | 85 | 2.53 | 0 RAPPAHANNOCK | 61 | 61 | 12.237 | 733.68 | 28 | 1.82 | 0.15 RICHMOND | 29 | 16 | 102.711 | 682.79 | 79 | 1.35 | 0.01 ROANOKE | 71 | 71 | 4181.906 | 783.81 | -22 | -1.66 | 0 ROCKBRIDGE | 83 | 40 | 670.4299 | 711.06 | 51 | 2.17 | 0 ROCKINGHAM | 5526 | 282 | 8875.608 | 642.22 | 120 | 36.03 | 0 SCOTT | 13 | 13 | 415.799 | 773.02 | -11 | -0.15 | 0 SHENANDOAH | 893 | 99 | 2336.518 | 644.14 | 118 | 12.44 | 0.01 SMYTH | 28 | 28 | 2062.959 | 801.01 | -39 | -1.16 | 0 SOUTHAMPTON | 1624 | 14 | 2809.936 | 781.38 | -19 | -0.28 | 0 SPOTSYLVANIA | 96 | 27 | 4081.042 | 722.63 | 39 | 1.12 | 0 STAFFORD | 10 | 10 | 4400.723 | 685.75 | 76 | 0.81 | 0 SURRY | 929 | 10 | 119.0785 | 717.98 | 44 | 0.47 | 0 SUSSEX | 699 | 15 | 541.7868 | 762.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 WARREN | 10 | 10 | 3619.162 | 629.1 | 133 | 1.42 | 0 WASHINGTON | 122 | 51 | 3971.443 | 813.66 | -52 | -2.82 | 0 WESTMORELAND | 882 | 111 | 436.6395 | 715.9 | 46 | 5.44 | 0.01 WISE | 27 | 15 | 2262.56 | 812.04 | -50 | -0.8 | 0 WYTHE | 18 | 18 | 2789.952 | 735.75 | 26 | 0.5 | 0 YORK | 11 | 11 | 6494.848 | 723.11 | 39 | 0.46 | 0 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 72 | 57 | 1982.655 | 847.3 | -85 | -5.16 | 0 SUFFOLK CITY | 585 | 60 | 35939.42 | 827.5 | -66 | -4.22 | 0 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 315 | 65 | 10503.86 | 851.03 | -89 | -6.16 | 0

MK for Area under Th

County | c2002 | c2007 | c2012 | c2017 | p_MK | Tau_MK -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 17 | 49 | 54 | 58 | 0.089 | 1 LOUISA | 51 | 54 | 88 | 90 | 0.089 | 1 FAUQUIER | 202 | 160 | 207 | 217 | 0.308 | 0.667 JAMES CITY | 12 | 16 | 15 | 27 | 0.308 | 0.667 KING WILLIAM | 15 | 0 | 16 | 17 | 0.308 | 0.667 LOUDOUN | 185 | 142 | 235 | 242 | 0.308 | 0.667 MIDDLESEX | 16 | 0 | 18 | 26 | 0.308 | 0.667 PULASKI | 3 | 23 | 14 | 28 | 0.308 | 0.667 RAPPAHANNOCK | 10 | 56 | 95 | 61 | 0.308 | 0.667 ROCKINGHAM | 174 | 241 | 350 | 282 | 0.308 | 0.667 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 35 | 51 | 44 | 65 | 0.308 | 0.667 WISE | 10 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 0.308 | 0.667 NOTTOWAY | 32 | 32 | 55 | 44 | 0.47 | 0.548 APPOMATTOX | 19 | 43 | 81 | 24 | 0.734 | 0.333 AUGUSTA | 184 | 195 | 87 | 199 | 0.734 | 0.333 ISLE OF WIGHT | 5 | 44 | 13 | 37 | 0.734 | 0.333 PAGE | 14 | 47 | 19 | 20 | 0.734 | 0.333 BUCKINGHAM | 16 | 26 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 0.183 ALBEMARLE | 120 | 70 | 168 | 113 | 1 | 0 CRAIG | 30 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 0 CULPEPER | 111 | 67 | 64 | 167 | 1 | 0 FAIRFAX | 101 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 1 | 0 FLUVANNA | 24 | 30 | 61 | 18 | 1 | 0 GILES | 28 | 13 | 32 | 27 | 1 | 0 HALIFAX | 82 | 123 | 223 | 52 | 1 | 0 HENRY | 39 | 6 | 40 | 14 | 1 | 0 KING AND QUEEN | 64 | 16 | 18 | 37 | 1 | 0 MATHEWS | 5 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 0 MECKLENBURG | 236 | 60 | 66 | 101 | 1 | 0 PRINCE WILLIAM | 10 | 89 | 69 | 34 | 1 | 0 SHENANDOAH | 36 | 125 | 111 | 99 | 1 | 0 SOUTHAMPTON | 0 | 90 | 28 | 14 | 1 | 0 SUSSEX | 16 | 0 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 0 GOOCHLAND | 23 | 20 | 32 | 20 | 1 | -0.183 ROANOKE | 82 | 53 | 53 | 71 | 1 | -0.183 BEDFORD | 159 | 41 | 54 | 51 | 0.734 | -0.333 CHARLES CITY | 21 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 0.734 | -0.333 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 189 | 56 | 68 | 57 | 0.734 | -0.333 CHESTERFIELD | 35 | 46 | 12 | 28 | 0.734 | -0.333 DINWIDDIE | 115 | 25 | 53 | 27 | 0.734 | -0.333 FLOYD | 196 | 108 | 133 | 122 | 0.734 | -0.333 GREENE | 36 | 47 | 38 | 24 | 0.734 | -0.333 HANOVER | 278 | 116 | 247 | 179 | 0.734 | -0.333 HENRICO | 49 | 25 | 7 | 28 | 0.734 | -0.333 MADISON | 72 | 39 | 30 | 67 | 0.734 | -0.333 NORTHAMPTON | 44 | 48 | 47 | 8 | 0.734 | -0.333 PITTSYLVANIA | 211 | 64 | 184 | 78 | 0.734 | -0.333 POWHATAN | 32 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 0.734 | -0.333 PRINCE EDWARD | 46 | 60 | 11 | 14 | 0.734 | -0.333 ROCKBRIDGE | 55 | 46 | 59 | 40 | 0.734 | -0.333 SMYTH | 38 | 66 | 18 | 28 | 0.734 | -0.333 STAFFORD | 22 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 0.734 | -0.333 SURRY | 30 | 22 | 65 | 10 | 0.734 | -0.333 WESTMORELAND | 122 | 5 | 2 | 111 | 0.734 | -0.333 WYTHE | 22 | 55 | 52 | 18 | 0.734 | -0.333 CAROLINE | 25 | 79 | 25 | 19 | 0.47 | -0.548 ORANGE | 53 | 39 | 51 | 39 | 0.47 | -0.548 AMELIA | 109 | 38 | 45 | 19 | 0.308 | -0.667 BRUNSWICK | 126 | 26 | 40 | 6 | 0.308 | -0.667 CHARLOTTE | 202 | 136 | 85 | 94 | 0.308 | -0.667 CLARKE | 94 | 60 | 28 | 34 | 0.308 | -0.667 GLOUCESTER | 51 | 58 | 46 | 13 | 0.308 | -0.667 LEE | 204 | 43 | 61 | 32 | 0.308 | -0.667 NELSON | 145 | 97 | 57 | 66 | 0.308 | -0.667 SPOTSYLVANIA | 40 | 79 | 29 | 27 | 0.308 | -0.667 YORK | 41 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 0.308 | -0.667 BOTETOURT | 77 | 25 | 25 | 10 | 0.149 | -0.913 CAMPBELL | 130 | 107 | 98 | 40 | 0.089 | -1 FREDERICK | 159 | 101 | 79 | 15 | 0.089 | -1 LUNENBURG | 61 | 35 | 33 | 15 | 0.089 | -1 MONTGOMERY | 41 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 0.089 | -1 SCOTT | 180 | 84 | 23 | 13 | 0.089 | -1 SUFFOLK CITY | 109 | 68 | 62 | 60 | 0.089 | -1 WARREN | 70 | 58 | 12 | 10 | 0.089 | -1 WASHINGTON | 155 | 123 | 89 | 51 | 0.089 | -1

Thanks Lal. A few questions/suggestions:

Are the rainfall deficit values using total or effective rainfall?
For the trend analysis, do the test on the coefficient values for each year, not the irrigated area. Note that with four values we'll never get a statistically significant trend (max p possible is 0.089) but we can look at the tau to see if it's monotonic.
For the counties with VDEQ irrigation withdrawals, it would interesting to see a comparison of the unreported small farm VOLUME calculated in each of the two ways (as a percentage of irrigation withdrawals, or using rainfall deficit). For instance, in 2002 Augusta county would end up with 461.554 * 0.05 = 23MG based on VDEQ irrigation withdrawals, and 41.54 MG based on rainfall deficit. A scatterplot of these values (x axis is volume based on VDEQ irrigation withdrawals, y axis is volume based on rainfall deficit) would allow us to see if the rainfall deficit approach is consistently resulting in higher or lower values than the method based on VDEQ withdrawals, and fine tune the rainfall deficit approach as necessary.

1. Yes these are rainfall deficit values

2. MK on Coefficient

County_Name | c2002 | c2007 | c2012 | c2017 | Tau_MK | p_MK -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- ACCOMACK | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.707 | 0.371 ALBEMARLE | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.236 | 1 AMELIA | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.09 | -0.183 | 1 APPOMATTOX | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.667 | 0.308 AUGUSTA | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.183 | 1 BEDFORD | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.58 | 1 | 1 | 0.089 BOTETOURT | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 1 BRUNSWICK | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.913 | 0.149 BUCKINGHAM | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.183 | 1 CAMPBELL | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.333 | 0.734 CAROLINE | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.236 | 1 CHARLES CITY | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.816 | 0.245 CHARLOTTE | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0 | 1 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.548 | 0.47 CHESTERFIELD | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0 | -0.333 | 0.734 CLARKE | 0.29 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.24 | -0.333 | 0.734 CRAIG | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | -0.236 | 1 CULPEPER | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.27 | 0.333 | 0.734 DINWIDDIE | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 | -0.333 | 0.734 FAIRFAX | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.816 | 0.245 FAUQUIER | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.913 | 0.149 FLOYD | 0.73 | 1.59 | 0.69 | 0.67 | -0.667 | 0.308 FLUVANNA | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.183 | 1 FREDERICK | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.667 | 0.308 GILES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 GLOUCESTER | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 | -0.548 | 0.47 GOOCHLAND | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.707 | 0.371 GREENE | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.667 | 0.308 HALIFAX | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 HANOVER | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.05 | -0.333 | 0.734 HENRICO | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.548 | 0.47 HENRY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 ISLE OF WIGHT | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.333 | 0.734 JAMES CITY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 KING AND QUEEN | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | -0.183 | 1 KING WILLIAM | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.236 | 1 LEE | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0 | -1 | 0.089 LOUDOUN | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0 | -0.333 | 0.734 LOUISA | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.03 | -0.333 | 0.734 LUNENBURG | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 1 MADISON | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.04 | -0.667 | 0.308 MATHEWS | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0.41 | 0.14 | -0.667 | 0.308 MECKLENBURG | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.667 | 0.308 MIDDLESEX | 0.02 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.1 | 0.667 | 0.308 MONTGOMERY | 0.14 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | -0.183 | 1 NELSON | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.06 | -1 | 0.089 NORTHAMPTON | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 1 NOTTOWAY | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.548 | 0.47 ORANGE | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 1 PAGE | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.333 | 0.734 PITTSYLVANIA | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.333 | 0.734 POWHATAN | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.667 | 0.308 PRINCE EDWARD | 0.09 | 0.57 | 0.11 | 0 | -0.333 | 0.734 PRINCE WILLIAM | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 PULASKI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 RAPPAHANNOCK | 0.1 | 1.07 | 0.84 | 0.15 | 0 | 1 ROANOKE | 0.89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.183 | 1 ROCKBRIDGE | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.707 | 0.371 ROCKINGHAM | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.548 | 0.47 SCOTT | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.913 | 0.149 SHENANDOAH | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 SMYTH | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.236 | 1 SOUTHAMPTON | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.183 | 1 SPOTSYLVANIA | 0.12 | 0.55 | 0.5 | 0.28 | 0 | 1 STAFFORD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 SUFFOLK CITY | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.333 | 0.734 SURRY | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 | -0.183 | 1 SUSSEX | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.548 | 0.47 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 WARREN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 WASHINGTON | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.236 | 1 WESTMORELAND | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.183 | 1 WISE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 WYTHE | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.236 | 1 YORK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1

3. I have removed one value from DEQ irrigation method for plotting each year from 2007 to 2017 2007: 293 mgd (king and queen county) 2012: 246 mgd (king and queen county) 2012: 340 mgd (essex)

scatter

I really like the points @julieshortridge made above, and I also really like @laljeet responses here. These charts seem to suggest that there is not a clear bias in one direction or the other, but I would be interested in seeing all years on a single chart, rather than each year in a separate chart. Also, rainfall deficit by month or season could be beneficial to see if it improves error.

Actually, in and of itself, I speculate that comparing the model error between annual rainfall deficit and seasonal/monthly deficit approaches could provide a nice validation of the method if it in fact moves in the direction that I think it will.

Changes after the meeting:

**1. Effective precipitation months used: June- August

Use the deficit irrigation for counties with DEQ irrigation withdrawals**

Updated Scatter plots: Looks a lot better Some counties with unreported deficit irrigation methods are zero due to C_tot = 0 i.e. Irrigation volume (calculated by deficit method) is very small as compared to Total DEQ withdrawals

scatter

County_Name | c2002 | c2007 | c2012 | c2017 | Tau_MK | p_MK -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- APPOMATTOX | 0.13 | 0.24 | 1.01 | 1.97 | 1 | 0.089 GILES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 JAMES CITY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 STAFFORD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 WISE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 YORK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 ACCOMACK | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.913 | 0.149 BUCKINGHAM | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.667 | 0.308 ISLE OF WIGHT | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.87 | 0.2 | 0.667 | 0.308 LOUISA | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.2 | 0.19 | 0.667 | 0.308 RAPPAHANNOCK | 0.39 | 2.15 | 3.63 | 2.52 | 0.667 | 0.308 SPOTSYLVANIA | 0.4 | 1.73 | 1.65 | 86.44 | 0.667 | 0.308 PULASKI | 0 | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.408 | 0.699 BEDFORD | 0.02 | 1.96 | 2.68 | 1.61 | 0.333 | 0.734 CHARLOTTE | 0.91 | 3.31 | 2.9 | 3.22 | 0.333 | 0.734 CHESAPEAKE CITY | 0.06 | 19.21 | 0.01 | 23.37 | 0.333 | 0.734 FLOYD | 1.96 | 2.85 | 3.66 | 2.14 | 0.333 | 0.734 HENRICO | 0.05 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.333 | 0.734 GOOCHLAND | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.236 | 1 ROCKBRIDGE | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.236 | 1 HENRY | 0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.183 | 1 ROANOKE | 2.13 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 47.88 | 0.183 | 1 AUGUSTA | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 CAMPBELL | 0.03 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.19 | 0 | 1 CULPEPER | 15.73 | 0.1 | 0.35 | 1.11 | 0 | 1 HALIFAX | 1.65 | 7.86 | 55.18 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 MADISON | 0.97 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 0 | 1 MIDDLESEX | 0.69 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.55 | 0 | 1 PAGE | 0.23 | 1.93 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0 | 1 PRINCE EDWARD | 0.72 | 1.12 | 120.63 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 ROCKINGHAM | 0.37 | 0.66 | 0.28 | 0.58 | 0 | 1 SHENANDOAH | 0.66 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.45 | 0 | 1 SOUTHAMPTON | 0 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 KING AND QUEEN | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -0.183 | 1 KING WILLIAM | 0.07 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.183 | 1 SMYTH | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.183 | 1 WESTMORELAND | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | -0.183 | 1 CAROLINE | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.236 | 1 CHARLES CITY | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.333 | 0.734 CLARKE | 1.18 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.07 | -0.333 | 0.734 DINWIDDIE | 4.39 | 0.14 | 1.7 | 0.41 | -0.333 | 0.734 FAUQUIER | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.09 | -0.333 | 0.734 FLUVANNA | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.03 | -0.333 | 0.734 GRAYSON | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.67 | 0.14 | -0.333 | 0.734 LOUDOUN | 2.98 | 2.71 | 311.57 | 0.03 | -0.333 | 0.734 NOTTOWAY | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.06 | -0.333 | 0.734 PATRICK | 0.31 | 11.39 | 0.07 | 0.16 | -0.333 | 0.734 PITTSYLVANIA | 1.37 | 0.57 | 3.65 | 0.04 | -0.333 | 0.734 POWHATAN | 34.31 | 0.34 | 2.66 | 1.92 | -0.333 | 0.734 PRINCE WILLIAM | 1.79 | 20.02 | 0.84 | 1.15 | -0.333 | 0.734 SUFFOLK CITY | 0.28 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.21 | -0.333 | 0.734 SURRY | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1.27 | 0.1 | -0.333 | 0.734 SUSSEX | 0.21 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | -0.333 | 0.734 ALBEMARLE | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.408 | 0.699 CRAIG | 0.02 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.548 | 0.47 AMELIA | 1.59 | 1.33 | 0.32 | 1.01 | -0.667 | 0.308 BRUNSWICK | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0 | -0.667 | 0.308 CHESTERFIELD | 0.4 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 0 | -0.667 | 0.308 FRANKLIN | 10.67 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.09 | -0.667 | 0.308 HANOVER | 0.74 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.15 | -0.667 | 0.308 LEE | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.667 | 0.308 MATHEWS | 2.64 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 1.05 | -0.667 | 0.308 MECKLENBURG | 23.24 | 5.08 | 0.04 | 0.07 | -0.667 | 0.308 MONTGOMERY | 1.47 | 0.49 | 0.33 | 0.45 | -0.667 | 0.308 NELSON | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.08 | -0.667 | 0.308 ORANGE | 65.71 | 0.3 | 2.22 | 0.03 | -0.667 | 0.308 BOTETOURT | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.707 | 0.371 WYTHE | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | -0.707 | 0.371 WARREN | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | -0.816 | 0.245 WASHINGTON | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.816 | 0.245 CARROLL | 0.18 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.913 | 0.149 FAIRFAX | 4.25 | 1.37 | 0 | 0 | -0.913 | 0.149 GREENE | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.05 | -0.913 | 0.149 NORTHAMPTON | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.913 | 0.149 FREDERICK | 9.43 | 4.45 | 0.03 | 0 | -1 | 0.089 GLOUCESTER | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | -1 | 0.089 LUNENBURG | 3.14 | 2.39 | 2.3 | 0.04 | -1 | 0.089 SCOTT | 0.24 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -1 | 0.089

Some notes I jotted down during our last call:

Julie’s proposed plan forward 1) figure out these coefficient numbers, determine if any show a moving trend that justify having a moving value 2) apply those, take the observed DEQ withdrawal, multiply by a timseries of unreported small farm and large farm irrigation in each country 3) take that timeseries, merge these PRISM values on it 4) do a regression on it, look at what those beta values look like 5) maybe use it to run a few scenarios

Total Withdrawals

County_Name | c2002 | c2007 | c2012 | c2017 | Tau_MK | p_MK | Monotonic -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- APPOMATTOX | 0.13001 | 0.24187 | 1.0052 | 1.96615 | 1 | 0.089 | Y JAMES CITY | 0.00137 | 0.00141 | 0.00301 | 0.0044 | 1 | 0.089 | Y AMELIA | 1.59385 | 1.33155 | 0.23068 | 0.15652 | -1 | 0.089 | Y CARROLL | 0.18194 | 0.10226 | 0.05336 | 0.0451 | -1 | 0.089 | Y CHARLOTTE | 0.90626 | 0.64366 | 0.53597 | 0.50486 | -1 | 0.089 | Y FREDERICK | 0.12614 | 0.02684 | 0.02511 | 0.00406 | -1 | 0.089 | Y GLOUCESTER | 0.06869 | 0.06049 | 0.04902 | 0.01365 | -1 | 0.089 | Y LUNENBURG | 0.13555 | 0.09584 | 0.09155 | 0.03843 | -1 | 0.089 | Y MONTGOMERY | 0.00297 | 0.0026 | 0.00201 | 0.00199 | -1 | 0.089 | Y NORTHAMPTON | 0.02622 | 0.02262 | 0.01879 | 0.00459 | -1 | 0.089 | Y SCOTT | 0.24223 | 0.11076 | 0.02627 | 0.01479 | -1 | 0.089 | Y SUFFOLK CITY | 0.00163 | 0.00085 | 0.00068 | 0.00066 | -1 | 0.089 | Y WARREN | 0.01056 | 0.00789 | 0.00182 | 0.00153 | -1 | 0.089 | Y WASHINGTON | 0.02084 | 0.01814 | 0.0119 | 0.00606 | -1 | 0.089 | Y ACCOMACK | 0.00183 | 0.00797 | 0.00557 | 0.00814 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N BUCKINGHAM | 0.02148 | 0.08395 | 0.06699 | 0.08731 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N HANOVER | 0.02958 | 0.05846 | 0.11367 | 0.06419 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N ISLE OF WIGHT | 0.00016 | 0.00155 | 0.00112 | 0.00188 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N LOUISA | 0.13474 | 0.14165 | 0.19766 | 0.18723 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N PULASKI | 0.00099 | 0.00733 | 0.00483 | 0.00989 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N RAPPAHANNOCK | 0.3938 | 2.15192 | 3.62915 | 2.52104 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N ROANOKE | 0.00595 | 0.00662 | 0.00606 | 0.00859 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N ROCKINGHAM | 0.01162 | 0.01219 | 0.01733 | 0.01648 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N VIRGINIA BEACH CITY | 0.00189 | 0.00199 | 0.0029 | 0.00219 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N MIDDLESEX | 0.07903 | 0 | 0.06316 | 0.13268 | 0.333 | 0.734 | N PAGE | 0.00901 | 0.03883 | 0.01486 | 0.0165 | 0.333 | 0.734 | N ROCKBRIDGE | 0.02548 | 0.02317 | 0.03354 | 0.03164 | 0.333 | 0.734 | N WISE | 0.00205 | 0.00144 | 0.00175 | 0.00292 | 0.333 | 0.734 | N YORK | 0.00082 | 0.00027 | 0.00043 | 0.00083 | 0.333 | 0.734 | N ALBEMARLE | 0.01674 | 0.00848 | 0.02258 | 0.01326 | 0 | 1 | N AUGUSTA | 0.02613 | 0.02513 | 0.00984 | 0.02994 | 0 | 1 | N CULPEPER | 0.10811 | 0.03119 | 0.03297 | 0.08389 | 0 | 1 | N GILES | 0.00061 | 0.00032 | 0.00077 | 0.00053 | 0 | 1 | N HALIFAX | 0.05744 | 0.10259 | 0.17469 | 0.03459 | 0 | 1 | N HENRY | 0.01217 | 0.003 | 0.01814 | 0.006 | 0 | 1 | N KING AND QUEEN | 0.15063 | 0.0292 | 0.04017 | 0.04328 | 0 | 1 | N KING WILLIAM | 0.00125 | 0 | 0.00113 | 0.00118 | 0 | 1 | N MADISON | 0.9697 | 0.18608 | 0.27645 | 0.5057 | 0 | 1 | N PATRICK | 0.31418 | 0.03985 | 0.07365 | 0.15737 | 0 | 1 | N PITTSYLVANIA | 0.06552 | 0.03455 | 0.14065 | 0.03997 | 0 | 1 | N PRINCE WILLIAM | 0.00028 | 0.00187 | 0.00162 | 0.00066 | 0 | 1 | N SHENANDOAH | 0.01021 | 0.03203 | 0.02657 | 0.02265 | 0 | 1 | N SOUTHAMPTON | 0 | 0.00831 | 0.00755 | 0.00194 | 0 | 1 | N SUSSEX | 0.01993 | 0 | 0.02624 | 0.01161 | 0 | 1 | N WESTMORELAND | 0.10412 | 0.00252 | 0.00148 | 0.11749 | 0 | 1 | N BEDFORD | 0.01813 | 0.00353 | 0.00472 | 0.00378 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N BOTETOURT | 0.01532 | 0.02111 | 0.02091 | 0.01041 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CHARLES CITY | 0.04598 | 0.12785 | 0.01264 | 0.01736 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CHESAPEAKE CITY | 0.05923 | 0.00614 | 0.01261 | 0.01056 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CHESTERFIELD | 0.00068 | 0.00074 | 0.0002 | 0.00037 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CRAIG | 0.01889 | 0.10423 | 0.00631 | 0.00842 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N FAIRFAX | 0.00196 | 0.0007 | 0.00096 | 0.00091 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N FAUQUIER | 0.13006 | 0.07552 | 0.10177 | 0.0927 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N FLOYD | 1.96053 | 2.85497 | 2.23921 | 0.84964 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N FLUVANNA | 0.05179 | 0.04388 | 0.09481 | 0.03345 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N GOOCHLAND | 0.02025 | 0.01062 | 0.01977 | 0.01503 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N GRAYSON | 0.577 | 0.39376 | 0.66803 | 0.14141 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N HENRICO | 0.04516 | 0.00111 | 0.00036 | 0.00144 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N LOUDOUN | 0.05056 | 0.03478 | 0.0576 | 0.02776 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N MECKLENBURG | 0.11478 | 0.05106 | 0.04416 | 0.06576 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N NOTTOWAY | 0.08704 | 0.03808 | 0.07706 | 0.05854 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N ORANGE | 0.05195 | 0.02905 | 0.03798 | 0.03141 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N POWHATAN | 0.60954 | 0.02214 | 0.26068 | 0.11793 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N PRINCE EDWARD | 0.06819 | 1.11711 | 0.0163 | 0.01754 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N SMYTH | 0.00721 | 0.02159 | 0.0045 | 0.00643 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N SURRY | 0.12238 | 0.11001 | 0.36418 | 0.03804 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N WYTHE | 0.00744 | 0.01079 | 0.01042 | 0.00356 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N BRUNSWICK | 0.0882 | 0.01668 | 0.04663 | 0.00464 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N CAMPBELL | 0.03312 | 0.0265 | 0.02949 | 0.01025 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N CAROLINE | 0.00559 | 0.01893 | 0.00538 | 0.00512 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N CLARKE | 0.19451 | 0.14081 | 0.06123 | 0.0749 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N DINWIDDIE | 0.60133 | 0.08431 | 0.5502 | 0.08065 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N FRANKLIN | 0.30394 | 0.15489 | 0.0793 | 0.08834 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N GREENE | 0.09185 | 0.09482 | 0.07634 | 0.04989 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N LEE | 0.19271 | 0.03171 | 0.03521 | 0.01609 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N MATHEWS | 2.64151 | 1.72859 | 1.0285 | 1.0477 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N NELSON | 0.14602 | 0.04774 | 0.02809 | 0.03474 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N SPOTSYLVANIA | 0.00655 | 0.01057 | 0.00443 | 0.00309 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N STAFFORD | 0.00375 | 0.00133 | 0.00366 | 0.00116 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N

Using Irrigation Withdrawals

County_Name | c2002 | c2007 | c2012 | c2017 | Tau_MK | p_MK | Monotonic -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- NORTHAMPTON | 0.03522 | 0.02952 | 0.02509 | 0.00765 | -1 | 0.089 | Y ACCOMACK | 0.00287 | 0.0149 | 0.00753 | 0.01609 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N AMELIA | 1.59385 | 1.33155 | 0.31778 | 1.00503 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N AUGUSTA | 0.2458 | 0.17463 | 0.09359 | 0.59712 | 0 | 1 | N CAROLINE | 0.01546 | 0.08392 | 0.01801 | 0.01577 | 0 | 1 | N CHARLES CITY | 0.04984 | 0.48571 | 0.01334 | 0.01965 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CLARKE | 1.17874 | 0.82773 | 0.33212 | 1.07367 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N CULPEPER | 15.7324 | 0.09537 | 0.35343 | 1.10946 | 0 | 1 | N DINWIDDIE | 4.39132 | 0.13545 | 1.69588 | 0.40541 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N HANOVER | 0.74117 | 0.22029 | 0.23895 | 0.15018 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N ISLE OF WIGHT | 0.02821 | 0.19309 | 0.87478 | 0.20338 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N KING AND QUEEN | 0.15332 | 0.02968 | 0.04087 | 0.04376 | 0 | 1 | N KING WILLIAM | 0.06536 | 0 | 0.02537 | 0.02957 | 0 | 1 | N MIDDLESEX | 0.69179 | 0 | 0.1027 | 0.54801 | 0 | 1 | N MONTGOMERY | 1.46882 | 0.48603 | 0.32645 | 0.45442 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N NELSON | 0.45084 | 0.10803 | 0.06826 | 0.07586 | -0.667 | 0.308 | N PAGE | 0.22914 | 1.93262 | 0.18502 | 0.42505 | 0 | 1 | N POWHATAN | 34.3103 | 0.33636 | 2.6575 | 1.9186 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N PRINCE WILLIAM | 1.78824 | 20.019 | 0.83973 | 1.1526 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N ROCKINGHAM | 0.36869 | 0.6555 | 0.27781 | 0.57519 | 0 | 1 | N SHENANDOAH | 0.66354 | 2.14816 | 1.64956 | 1.45465 | 0 | 1 | N SOUTHAMPTON | 0 | 0.18933 | 0.06604 | 0.03935 | 0 | 1 | N SPOTSYLVANIA | 0.40307 | 1.7267 | 1.65294 | 86.4384 | 0.667 | 0.308 | N SUFFOLK CITY | 0.27761 | 0.17923 | 0.17029 | 0.2117 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N SURRY | 0.31352 | 0.28615 | 1.27293 | 0.10362 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N SUSSEX | 0.20518 | 0 | 0.16706 | 0.0322 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N WESTMORELAND | 0.22195 | 0.00361 | 0.00295 | 0.15944 | -0.333 | 0.734 | N

Thanks Lal, this is helpful to see. From this, it appears that the rainfall deficit approach does tend to result in higher volume estimates than the area proportional approach. That's ok, just useful to know. It also appears that the range of rainfall deficit estimates is somewhat smaller than the range of area proportional estimates. The range of area proportional MG is about 0.01 (eyeballing this, having those lower values marked on the x-axis would be helpful) to 100 MG, while the range of rainfall deficit estimates is about 1 to 100.

It might also be helpful to see a summary of the ratio of volume estimates derived from the two methods: ratio_c,y = V_rainfalldef_c,y / V_areaprop_c,y This would allow us to say something like "on average, estimates using the rainfall deficit approach are X% higher than estimates using the area proportional approach"

The ratio of volume estimates: V_rainfalldefc,y / V_areapropc,y Mean= 21.7 Median= 2.5

Scatter_old_new_Method

Thanks Lal, this is interesting to see. We didn't get time to talk about it today, but one thing I've been wondering is if we could consider that area proportional approach as a likely lower bound (or at least an estimate that we know is likely to be lower than the true value). I think we can, because one assumption that we're making when we use that approach is that all of the farms above the threshold are accounted for in the VDEQ reported withdrawal, even though we know that's not the case.

If we relax that assumption and assume that some of those large farm acres are not reporting to VDEQ, then our coefficients for small farm irrigation as a percentage of VDEQ withdrawals will necessarily go up. If we assume that VDEQ reports account for about half of actual water used by large farms (as our large farm estimates seem to suggest), then the small farm estimates would double. This seems pretty aligned with that median increase of 2.5 above.

I'm attaching an image of the equations I did just to get my head around this, in case it's useful. I don't think we necessarily need to use this moving forward, but I think it is one more piece of evidence towards the robustness of our rainfall deficit approach.

HARPgroup / WUDR