Difficult Run Model Vs. Observed Comparisons

[rburghol]

Data Sets:

1. Raw model output from the CBP Phase 5.32 model performs in Difficult Run. (raw = HSPF channel routing output).
2. OM model of Difficult Run with only 1 channel, using Muskingum routing
3. OM model of Difficult Run with multiple channels, but no impoundments
4. OM model of Difficult Run with select impoudments added to network

With this data, then we can look at:

• how well does the "raw" model meet the Difficult Run gage (even though DRun was NOT used in calibration)
• What difference does the detailed routing model provide?
• What effect does the addition of small impoundments have on calibration?

Run IDs

• Run 1000 = Full Time Series (1984-2005), no impoundments, Difficult Run
• Run 6000 = NO Impoundments, 2000/01/01 - 2005/12/31,
• Run 7000 = NO Impoundments, wet year, 1989/01/01 - 1989/12/31,
• Run 7100 = All Impoundments, wet year, 1989/01/01 - 1989/12/31,
• Run 8000 = NO impoundments, event 1987-05-01 to 1987-05-15
• Runid 8100 = All impoundments, event 1987-05-01 to 1987-05-15
• Runid 9100 = Sensitivity analysis impoundments event 1987-05-01 to 1987-05-15

[rburghol]

Why are you so certain that “They might blur with daily aggregation, but we will certainly capture long term trends if we can describe short term changes.”

I think the 20 year runs are meaningless at this time because we don’t have a good handle on:

1. How to quantify the changes since these are small watershed where changes are most profound at hourly scales but the accepted flow metrics are hourly.
2. How your outlet estimation procedure impacts model results.
3. Whether we have a proper timestep
4. How downscaling of a large model like this affects our work.

The sensitivity analysis and the short term runs ARE the takeaways here. No one understands the answers to these questions, and until we figure that out we are just running hypothetical models. And Tylers analysis should be especially insightful at the event scale.

On Fri, Mar 2, 2018 at 12:31 PM connorb5 notifications@github.com wrote:

Metrics are calculated at the daily timestep. I plotted the hydrographs at an hourly point because I want to make sure we're capturing the overall alteration and it doens't necessarily show up at a daily timestep. They might blur with daily aggregation, but we will certainly capture long term trends if we can describe short term changes. As a heads up, Tyler and I are running the overall model for 20 years. We both want some preliminary results for our meetings and we're interested to see the trends in ET. Look for some new figures and stats at the next HARP meeting

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Robert W. Burgholzer 'Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that's creativity.' - Charles Mingus Athletics: http://athleticalgorithm.wordpress.com/ Science: http://robertwb.wordpress.com/ Wine: http://reesvineyard.wordpress.com/

[rburghol]

Master runs: 339991

• 210 - 1984-1989 no imps
• 212 1984-1989 WITH
• 213 - 1990-1994 NONE
• 214 - 1990-1994 WITH
• 215 - 1995-1999 NONE
• 216 - 1995-1999 WITH
• 217 - 2000-2005 NONE
• 218 - 2000-2005 WITH

[connorb5]

As a heads-up, I will be working to redo my sensitivity analysis this weekend on a period of drought and a period of a more moderate storm. The large one I picked previously may be partially skewing my results and it would be nice to see effects on a more run-of-mill type storm. I'll be including new scenarios where drainage area changes with channel length and some where I iterate maximum storage and back-calculate surface area and normal storage (more dynamic than my current approach). I'll prioritize the moderate storm first until we get a working fix for discharge below normal pool.

[rburghol]

Sounds great. Thanks for the heads up.

On Thu, Mar 22, 2018 at 10:59 AM, connorb5 notifications@github.com wrote:

As a heads-up, I will be working to redo my sensitivity analysis this weekend on a period of drought and a period of a more moderate storm. The large one I picked previously may be partially skewing my results and it would be nice to see effects on a more run-of-mill type storm. I'll be including new scenarios where drainage area changes with channel length and some where I iterate maximum storage and back-calculate surface area and normal storage (more dynamic than my current approach). I'll prioritize the moderate storm first until we get a working fix for discharge below normal pool.

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Robert W. Burgholzer 'Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that's creativity.' - Charles Mingus Athletics: http://athleticalgorithm.wordpress.com/ Science: http://robertwb.wordpress.com/ Wine: http://reesvineyard.wordpress.com/