MRT 2011-15

[QLLZ]

Data pull: HASH: 6772ea9da4f43ddc3da11c494a573af2ca3dd3c8 config

[QLLZ]

Model run: HASH: 6772ea9da4f43ddc3da11c494a573af2ca3dd3c8

[QLLZ]

Country data report

[eclee25]

Some instability sd_w and w (trend in samples over time) and some rhat issues. Maps, fits, GAM input comparison look ok. 2011 is the only year with non-zero cases and case counts are generally low.

Opinion: Leaning towards Approve, need second opinion

[javierps]

The issue here is the lack of sub-national level data, so we don't expect the w estimates to be meaningful.

I would suggest approving as the posterior probs of the risk categories at sub-national level do seem OK.

[eclee25]

Opinion: Temp Approve and rerun with spatial_effect: no and higher sfrac_thresh_border due to highish rates in N and W

[QLLZ]

Config

Data pull & Model run:

HASH: 211913e0eb7d570ed62c48bc1ae9ecd6671a6cbc

[QLLZ]

country data report

[QLLZ]

This run was not moved to no-spatial effect column. Rerun with no-w.

[QLLZ]

Updated no w country data report

[QLLZ]

Results look good.

Suggestion: accept.

[eclee25]

Almost no subnational data. no-W model run looks good. Approve

[eclee25]

As there is some subnational data in the year with cases, and the sd_w was trending upward in the standard model, let's try with the no-mixture sd_w prior

[QLLZ]

Data pull, model run:

HASH: 05f598b95b5d42ac0049963f8a0b7e04d6f1dbd7

[javierps]

Issues with rhat, small drift in std_w, ws also seem to have slight issues. Rhats OK except for one datapoint at 1.06, output rhats mostly OK with max values < 1.1. Given the amount of data not sure we can do much better.

Suggestion: Accept.

[eclee25]

Investigate 2011 censored observations -- why are they underestimated?

[eclee25]

Very minimal subnational data and national observation fits are ok. Discussed as a group. Approve