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CDR under the Emissions|CO2|* : is it clear enough where to report removals from different methods ? #145

Open jkikstra opened 3 weeks ago

jkikstra commented 3 weeks ago

In the first round of ScenarioMIP submissions (for those involved, link), there was some confusion over where negative emissions should be reported under the CO2 variables. The AIM team had reported some negative emissions under Emissions|Other, while other teams tend to report it only* under Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes

This is not my expertise, so feel free to point towards clear descriptions if they already exist. I just looked at the template.

If we split up Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes, looking at 2100 of the "Low Overshoot" scenarios, most modelling teams report most negative emissions under Emissions|CO2|Energy, with only GCAM reporting net-negative emissions also under Emissions|CO2|Industrial Processes (in addition to being net-negative in Emissions|CO2|Energy). There is now also the new variable Emissions|CO2|Capture and Removal, which wasn't used by any model in the first round. And also Emissions|CO2|Product Use, where I don't think there would be CDR, but I'm not sure about either the modelling of it or the guidance on reporting CDR (CCS yes, but CDR I don't think so).

(Some of) the definitions are now:

variable description
Emissions|CO2 Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2)
Emissions|CO2|AFOLU Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from agriculture, forestry and other land use (IPCC category 3)
Emissions|CO2|Capture and Removal Capture and removal of atmospheric fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) using net-negative technologies that are not directly linked to an emissions source, e.g., direct air capture (DAC) or enhanced weathering
Emissions|CO2|Energy Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy use, including fugitive emissions from fuels (IPCC category 1A, 1B)
Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy use in supply and demand sectors (IPCC category 1A, 1B) and from industrial processes (IPCC categories 2A, B, C, E), including emissions from international bunker fuels, net of negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) in these sectors
Emissions|CO2|Industrial Processes Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial processes (IPCC categories 2A, B, C, E), net of negative emissions using CCS
Emissions|CO2|Other Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from other sources
Emissions|CO2|Product Use Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from product use (IPCC category 2D, 2F and 2G)
Emissions|CO2|Waste Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from waste (IPCC category 6)

I note that there's:

The complete, up-to-date description of the emissions variables in the current variable template are here: https://github.com/IAMconsortium/common-definitions/blob/main/definitions/variable/emissions/emissions.yaml


*"Only" here meaning, out of the (presumed additive, and comprehensive) summation set "Emissions|CO2" = "Emissions|CO2|AFOLU" + "Emissions|CO2|Energy and Industrial Processes" + "Emissions|CO2|Other" + "Emissions|CO2|Waste"

shinichirofujimoriKU commented 4 days ago

The description on Emissions|CO2|AFOLU, which is "Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from agriculture, forestry and other land use (IPCC category 3)", is a bit confusing since it is unclear whether only "fossil CO2" is considered or not. I would revise as below. "Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from agriculture and forestry sectors, and CO2 from land use and land use changes (IPCC category 3)" Also, we should specify where we should report soil carbon and biochar. I think straightforward classification is Emissions|CO2|AFOLU. However, if the harmonization process uses this AFOLU, then those CDRs could be influenced by the harmonizatoin. So, there are two options. One is including them into AFOLU but have subcategory that specificies these CDRs. In the harmonization process you could deal with them appropriately so that the hamonization only applied to AFOLU emissions exluding biochar and soil carbon. The second option is assign soil carbon and biochar under "Emissions|CO2|Capture and Removal". It is I think easy for harmonization but from the IPCC category and inventory perspective, it may cause confusion. So my proposal is going first option but I am open.

danielhuppmann commented 4 days ago

The description on Emissions|CO2|AFOLU, which is "Emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) from agriculture, forestry and other land use (IPCC category 3)", is a bit confusing since it is unclear whether only "fossil CO2" is considered or not.

This was a legacy-issue from NAVIGTE and was fixed in #162. CO2 emission variables clearly refer to all emissions, fossil and non-fossil.

jkikstra commented 2 days ago

Also, we should specify where we should report soil carbon and biochar. I think straightforward classification is Emissions|CO2|AFOLU. However, if the harmonization process uses this AFOLU, then those CDRs could be influenced by the harmonizatoin. So, there are two options. One is including them into AFOLU but have subcategory that specificies these CDRs. In the harmonization process you could deal with them appropriately so that the hamonization only applied to AFOLU emissions exluding biochar and soil carbon. The second option is assign soil carbon and biochar under "Emissions|CO2|Capture and Removal". It is I think easy for harmonization but from the IPCC category and inventory perspective, it may cause confusion. So my proposal is going first option but I am open.

Thanks for your input @shinichirofujimoriKU; if it is clear that it should fall under AFOLU (I didn't yet manage to find/get clear guidance) then I agree we should add it there.

For hamonization, if we would have a constant-based offset (as in AR6), it would make no difference to harmonization (with biochar at 0.25 MtCO2/yr currently; not sure how much soil carbon). But with a multiplicative offset, it could indeed matter.

gidden commented 2 days ago

One is including them into AFOLU but have subcategory that specificies these CDRs.

This would be my preferred approach. In the RESCUE project, we split out CDR methods from their "parent" category (so, e.g., DACCS is treated separately from Emissions|CO2|Energy), and would suggest we do the same here. The outcome would be that we have separate emissions (removal) trajectories for AFOLU, biochar, EW, etc. This is also important for the ultimate use in CMIP7, where each CDR method will have different land and removal spatial patterns.

jkikstra commented 2 days ago

So, for being able to split out each CDR method, I assume/hope we can rely on modelling teams reporting CDR by method here: https://github.com/IAMconsortium/common-definitions/blob/main/definitions/variable/emissions/tag_carbon-removal.yaml

But we can update the descriptions for a bit more clarity. In bold all relevant parts (and some additional updates, following IPCC guidelines). How is this?

variable description
Emissions|CO2 Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), net of emissions to the atmosphere and carbon dioxide removal
Emissions|CO2|AFOLU Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from agriculture, forestry and other land use (IPCC category 3), reporting the net of emissions including land-use methods that do not use CCS such as soil carbon sequestration, biochar, forestry, peatland and wetland restoration, and biomass burial
Emissions|CO2|Capture and Removal Capture and removal of atmospheric fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) using other net-negative technologies that are not reported under other variables as they are not directly linked to an emissions source, including direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) or enhanced weathering (EW), as well as durable wood products in building elements, mineral products, ocean fertilization, biomass sinking, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), direct ocean capture, and other methods
Emissions|CO2|Energy Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy use, including fugitive emissions from fuels and fossil fuel fires (IPCC category 1A (except manufacturing 1A2 and other unspecified 1A5), 1B), reporting the net of energy emissions and carbon capture and removal using BECCS and other forms of CCS on energy forms such Natural Gas, Oil, and Coal, as well as bio-oil storage .
Emissions|CO2|Industrial Processes Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial processes (IPCC categories 1A2, 1A5, 2A, B, C, E), net of negative emissions using CCS such as from Cement Production
Emissions|CO2|Other Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from other sources (IPCC category 7, not including fossil fuel fires)
Emissions|CO2|Product Use Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from product use (IPCC category 2D, 2F and 2G)
Emissions|CO2|Waste Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from waste (IPCC category 6)

N.B. I now added "Fossil Fuel Fires" explicitly under "Energy" (see discussions under #165), which would be a change from last time (but nobody reported the variable before anyway).

I tried adding all current options from here, but am not so sure about all, e.g. 'Durable Wood Products'?