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IPCC-WG1 / Atlas

Repository supporting the implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC-WGI Atlas
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Lower max temperatures for 4 C GWL than 3 C #58

Closed kevin-hennessy closed 2 years ago

kevin-hennessy commented 2 years ago

For all regions, it's weird that the 95th percentile maximum of daily maximum temperatures is lower for 4 C global warming than 3 C global warming - it should be the opposite! Why does this occur?

jesusff commented 2 years ago

Thank you for your feedback, but we are unable to reproduce the results you report. Could you, please, provide further details (e.g. such as those requested in the errata template)?

kevin-hennessy commented 2 years ago

Hi Jesus,

See the attached file.

Errata #58 is described with screenshots in the attached file.

Regards,

Kevin.

From: Jesus Fernandez @.> Sent: Friday, 24 September 2021 6:09 PM To: IPCC-WG1/Atlas @.> Cc: Hennessy, Kevin (O&A, Aspendale) @.>; Author @.> Subject: Re: [IPCC-WG1/Atlas] Lower max temperatures for 4 C GWL than 3 C (#58)

Thank you for your feedback, but we are unable to reproduce the results you report. Could you, please, provide further details (e.g. such as those requested in the errata templatehttps://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/issues/new?labels=errata&template=problem-report.md)?

— You are receiving this because you authored the thread. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHubhttps://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/issues/58#issuecomment-926432761, or unsubscribehttps://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/AVXWON5VI2OGTTZMGZ5QEN3UDQW25ANCNFSM5EQZ6R3Q. Triage notifications on the go with GitHub Mobile for iOShttps://apps.apple.com/app/apple-store/id1477376905?ct=notification-email&mt=8&pt=524675 or Androidhttps://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.github.android&referrer=utm_campaign%3Dnotification-email%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_source%3Dgithub.

jesusff commented 2 years ago

Dear Kevin, attachments in e-mail replies are currently ignored by github. Could you comment/attach files in the website? If you are reading this in your e-mail, it would be just a matter of following the "view it on Github" link at the bottom. Sorry for the inconvenience.

kevin-hennessy commented 2 years ago

Data averaged over Australasia from the WG1 interactive atlas.docx The attached file describes #57 (fixed) and #58 (outstanding).

gutierjm commented 2 years ago

The number of models reaching 4º is smaller than those reaching 3º (27 and 16, respectively; see https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/warming-levels for more information). As a result, the P5-P95 ranges could seem inconsistent, particularly when looking at absolute magnitudes where model biases affect the relative position of the models, independently on the particular climate sensitivities. Results are more consistent for changes, which is the recommended use for the climate dimension of Global Warming Levels.

The plot below shows one of the examples above described (for TXx). The highlighted 11 models are those reaching 3º but not 4º.

image

We recommend adding a note in results showing this apparent inconsistency: "Note that the ensembles for the different global warming levels are different and, therefore, ranges and percentiles are not directly comparable."