Closed christophergandrud closed 6 years ago
setx
should set the baseline
setx1
should represent a shock
Currently setx
is overwritten by setx1
summary
for sim
should show QI for each time point
Documenting some digging:
In ztimeseries$sim
method setx1
precedes setx
unlike in normal zelig
approach: https://github.com/IQSS/Zelig/blob/be652cbda815279197ec4f37c613365fcfc5967b/R/model-timeseries.R#L173-L179
In ci.plot
only x
or x1
quantity of interest values are plotted: https://github.com/IQSS/Zelig/blob/be652cbda815279197ec4f37c613365fcfc5967b/R/plots.R#L572-L577
I made some simple modifications to the above code such that both setx
and setx1
are run and plotted next to each other. This is the result:
So, clearly not what we want.
Now turning to look more into what simx
and simx1
are doing. In particular, does simx1
use a baseline created by simx
, which I believe is the target behaviour?
Part of our confusion may be caused by the effect size in the example not being very large. If you put in silly values for setx
(e.g. 10 in the above example) the plot is different, so clearly setx
is not completely ignored, as we see here in setx1
: https://github.com/IQSS/Zelig/blob/be652cbda815279197ec4f37c613365fcfc5967b/R/model-timeseries.R#L138
Maybe rather than continuing to fumble around here it would be good if @tercer wrote up an example of exactly what is going on in this example. I feel like we haven't clearly defined what we want to achieve enough to even determine if it is already present.
(One thing that does kind of bug me is that Zelig is returning a plot of predicted values for 44 years for this example. Not sure how realistic that timeframe is for illustrating the effect of left seat share on unemployment.)
After much discussion within the Zelig team. We have decided to deprecate all time series models. It was often unclear what the desired quantities of interest are and how the current implementation aimed to achieve them.
A warning will be added to the models and they will be fully deprecated on 1 February 2018.
Implemented: 82e1e2b6887d83d27e3e60988daebf82753c2026
From https://github.com/IQSS/Zelig/issues/305