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ImperialCollegeLondon / covid19model

Code for modelling estimated deaths and cases for COVID19.
MIT License
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R value in base.stan #102

Closed sgt101 closed 4 years ago

sgt101 commented 4 years ago

Hello,

am I correct that the mu value in base.stan is the R0 infection rate?

I looked at the reference in the code - to Lui et-al 2020 ISTM paper. The mean of the estimates is 3.28; why was that chosen rather than the median, and why were the outliers not excluded?

s-mishra commented 4 years ago

Given that is just a prior and we have distribution around it all plausible values that data wants is available. It is not a fixed value but a normal centered at 3.28 with sigma as kappa so we have big variations around it covered.

flaxter commented 4 years ago

Just to add, mu is the parameter for R0, not the time varying reproduction number R(t).

On Mon, 11 May 2020, 19:44 Swapnil Mishra, notifications@github.com wrote:

Closed #102 https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/issues/102.

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