ImperialCollegeLondon / covid19model

Code for modelling estimated deaths and cases for COVID19.
MIT License
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Add 44 US States & District of Columbia #69

Closed goldfrank closed 4 years ago

goldfrank commented 4 years ago

I have extended your model to 44 US States and the District of Columbia, using data from Johns Hopkins and adapting it for the input format of your model.

For state-specific IFR, I used the European-country IFR averge, since test coverage in USA is insufficient.

Due to some hard-coding related to the European data, I used new _us.r files derived from the original. My progress is at a forked repository. I am uploading my results here.

If the authors are interested in the simple addition of "United States," this would be a relatively straightforward change. My intention going forward is to add a factor (k=7) for "partial lockdown" to represent situations where large municipalities locked down before the entire state.

s-mishra commented 4 years ago

Hi @goldfrank, great work. It is not that we have not tried partial and full lockdowns but having them as measures means for each country you need to curate a lot more and more importantly each partial lockdown is different depending on each region.

On the point of IFR calculations, any calculation that doesn't go through verity.et.al full methodology of using a contact matrix is not something we can merge to the master.

dsjoerg commented 4 years ago

Hi @goldfrank some volunteer colleagues and I are interested in doing US as well, care to collaborate? I am reachable at dsjoerg@gmail.com